How MAGA Can Stuff DOGE Back in Its Box and Win the Day on H1B

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Anyone inform Steve Bannon: Here’s a technique for MAGA to win on H1B. Congress is so carefully divided that even a number of members maintain veto energy over the Home’s selection of a Speaker. Take these steps: This week, kind a MAGA caucus (minimal dimension: 4. See under). Then, when Congress reconvenes at midday ET on January 3, the MAGA caucus ought to deny their votes to any Speaker nominee. No speaker will be elected. And not using a Speaker, the Home can’t operate, not to mention rely and certify the outcomes of the Electoral Faculty in order that Trump can take the oath of workplace on January 20. The one approach out: The Republican Social gathering agrees to the MAGA caucus calls for on H1B coverage. The MAGA caucus then permits the vote for a speaker to proceed to a conclusion.

That’s it, actually. That’s the put up. However I’ll increase a bit on particulars of the technique, touch upon H1B controversy over the previous few days, talk about what the demand is perhaps, and conclude.

Technique Background

The concept of utilizing the Speaker’s election as leverage comes from Chad Pergram, who covers Congress for FOX. He writes in “The Hitchhiker’s Information to failing to elect a Home speaker shortly” (an earlier model appeared in Water Cooler)

[T]he speaker’s election on Jan. 3 poses a particular problem. Right here’s the bar for Johnson – or anybody else: The speaker of the Home should win an outright majority of all members casting ballots for somebody by identify. In different phrases, the individual with essentially the most votes doesn’t win.

The top-count:

The Home clocks in at 434 members with one emptiness [Gaetz]…. That is the breakdown when the Congress begins: 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats…. However the speaker’s election on Jan. 3 poses a particular problem. Right here’s the bar for Johnson – or anybody else: The speaker of the Home should win an outright majority of all members casting ballots for somebody by identify. In different phrases, the individual with essentially the most votes doesn’t win.

This is the reason it took McCarthy so many ballots to win in January 2023.

So let’s crunch the maths for Mike Johnson. If there are 219 Republicans and 4 voted for somebody moreover him – and all Democrats forged ballots for Jeffries, the tally is 215-214. However there’s no speaker. Nobody attained an outright majority of all members casting ballots for somebody by identify. The magic quantity is 218 if all 434 members vote.

By rule, this paralyzes the Home[1]. The Home completely, unequivocally, can’t do something till it elects a speaker. Interval.

Due to this fact, the Maga Caucus ought to encompass a minimal of 4 members. Extra:

This additionally implies that the Home can’t certify the outcomes of the Electoral Faculty, making Trump the forty seventh president of the USA on Jan. 6.

The failure to elect a speaker compels the Home to vote again and again…

And over… and… over…

Till it lastly faucets somebody.

McCarthy’s election incinerated 15 ballots over 5 days two years in the past.

In fact, no person desires that. Which is why the Republican Social gathering ought to accede to the MAGA Caucus’s calls for. In writing, naturally.

I’m on no account an skilled in Republican politics or factions; I got here up as a Democrat. However following the H1B controversy on the Twitter, it struck me forcibly than many MAGA supporters have been in reality very effectively versed in coverage, historical past, and information, and deployed their data successfully in opposition to Musk and his tech bros. For instance, H1B isn’t about importing employees who’re “extremely expert” (a pervasive, unexamined, and dishonest, tech bro speaking level). That’s why, for instance, Trump introduced Mar-a-Lago waiters into the nation underneath H1B. Quite, H1B is about importing employees who’re low-cost and compliant, as a result of administration can maintain the specter of visa removing over their heads. That implies that different issues being equal, administration will all the time choose H1Bs over residents (the ability imbalance, as idpol sorts would say).

If MAGA is a celebration faction whose salient characteristic is loyalty to Trump, the MAGA caucus technique simply outlined won’t ever be adopted. If MAGA is about coverage, there’s at the very least an opportunity. Right here, the distinction between Democrats and MAGA may be very nice. It’s arduous to think about a livid debate over coverage going down amongst Democrats in public, one with little or no deference to leaders proven. It happens to me that Democrat expenses of authoritarian followership and cultishness are, effectively, projection. It’s additionally arduous for me to think about any Democrats having the stones to undertake the MAGA caucus technique. However maybe MAGA does!

H1B Controversy

Axios has a superb timeline of the controversy, in “Trump sides with Musk in H-1B combat“:

The MAGA-DOGE skirmishes began final Sunday, with anti-immigration and anti-Indian vitriol in opposition to Trump’s decide of enterprise capitalist Sriram Krishnan as his AI advisor.

I missed the Krishnan “vitriol.” Unhappy to say, however when so many “physique retailers” (InfoSys, and so forth.) are primarily based in India, and necessary Indian cititzens, it’s simple to see why animus may develop.

It escalated into full battle Thursday when Musk ally and DOGE co-lead Vivek Ramaswamy took to X to blast American “mediocrity” tradition. Musk defended Ramaswamy, and the 2 sides began participating in an more and more bitter disagreement.

I entered when Vivek posted his screed. Suffice to say that you can have swapped out Vivek’s phrases and swapped in Hillary’s “deplorables” speech, and no person would have seen. On the brilliant facet, it’s splendidly clarifying to see that management in each events hates the working class.

On Friday afternoon, Musk doubled down, saying MAGA adherents who continued to blast immigration and the tech neighborhood have been “contemptible fools,” later clarifying he was speaking about “racists” who would “completely be the downfall of the Republican Social gathering if they don’t seem to be eliminated.”

That “later clarifying” is doing a number of work; it’s nearly as if anyone handed Musk the speaking level. After which:

Simply earlier than midnight Friday, Musk as soon as once more defended the H-1B program in vulgar, all-caps phrases, saying this system was the important thing to the success of his (and different large American) firms.

“Take a giant step again and F–Ok YOURSELF within the face.,” Musk wrote.

Oh? How precisely? The Axios timeline provides out earlier than a sequence of engagements between Musk and MAGA, the place MAGA beats Musk like a gong on information and coverage. It is a very lengthy thread, however provides the flavour:

And:

And:

Oh look. Labor arbitrage! To which Musk responds, meek as a lamb:

Fairly the change in tone, eh? From ” F–Ok YOURSELF within the face” to “simply fastened”! It’s nearly as if Musk bought a name, isn’t?

In fact, if H1B have been that “simple to repair,” it might have been fastened alongside in the past. And it’s fairly revealing that it took a number of blows to Musk’s head and physique over many hours by MAGA with pores and skin within the recreation who truly understood the info and the coverage points to get whoever in Susie Wiles’s workplace screens Musk’s tweets to select up the telephone.

The Demand

Based mostly solely on having consumed huge numbers of Tweets on H1Bs, my conclusion is that Musk is incorrect to need “reform.” The aim of H1B is, in any case, labor arbitrage: low-cost, compliant labor. If labor arbitrage is reformed away from H1B, then there’s no cause for it within the first place. If not, it must be abolished totally. If Elon desires to import mind geniuses as a substitute of waiters for Mar-a-Lago, we have now one other class for that: O-1 (“O-1 Visa: People with Extraordinary Potential or Achievement“).

So that’s my demand, ill-informed although it could be: Abolish H1B; reform O-1 as wanted.

Nonetheless, get the dedication to satisfy the calls for in writing, for 3 causes:

First, my takeaway from the controversy is that the H1B supporters — i.e., DOGE — are basically dishonest; they held onto their “extremely expert labor” speaking level like grim dying, even that MAGA was simply in a position to present it was a lie (Sterling’s thread was the very best response, however there have been many, many others that have been good too). Something not lowered to writing might be gamed or not delivered on.

Second, it was amusing to see the cuddle puddle of Silicon Valley enterprise capitalists and media service suppliers — i.e., DOGE — appearing as enforcers as quickly as Elon took the “reform” line; they used the identical phrases and techniques Democrat enforcers do! (“Now isn’t the time,” “one workforce,” “time to maneuver on”). So, with dishonest occasion enforcers, sure, get it in writing.

Lastly, I’m sick of DOGE simply tweeting it out. It’s wonderful to see a heated coverage argument play out in public, however Elon’s commitments are definitely worth the digits they’re written with. Elon tweeting “Reforming H1B is nice, truly” and an entire cheering part chanting “The controversy is over” simply doesn’t make it[2]. Get the dedication to satisfy the calls for in writing.

Conclusion

Let me shut with phrases from the candidate who, if the Democrats hadn’t stabbed him within the again, may need forestalled Trump:

I’ve gotta say, quoting the President of Faculty Republicans wasn’t on my Bingo card. However I don’t suppose quoting Bernie Sanders was on his Bingo Card both.

Up to now — Hi there, President Romney! — Republicans have develop into extra like MAGA, not MAGA like Republicans. Maybe the H1B controversy will present whether or not this tendency will proceed, or stall.

NOTES

[1] It might be that in excessive conditions — and a number of votes for Speaker should not excessive — there are methods out. From “Home Follow: A Information to the Guidelines, Precedents and Procedures of the Home“:

Beneath the fashionable follow, the Speaker is elected by a majority of Members-elect voting by surname, a quorum being current.

As Pergram says. Extra (citations omitted):

In two situations the Home agreed to decide on and subsequently did select a Speaker by a plurality of votes however confirmed the selection by majority vote. In 1849 the Home had been in session 19 days with out having the ability to elect a Speaker, no candidate having acquired a majority of the votes forged. The voting was viva voce, every Member responding to the decision of the roll by naming the candidate for whom he voted. Lastly, after the fifty-ninth poll, the Home adopted a decision declaring {that a} Speaker might be elected by a plurality. In 1856 the Home once more struggled over the election of a Speaker. Ballots numbering 129 had been taken with none candidate receiving a majority of the votes forged. The Home then adopted a decision allowing the election to be determined by a plurality. On each of those events, the Home ratified the plurality election by a majority vote.

So if historical past is any information, 129 ballots is the baseline for altering the process Pergram describes. Feedback from Congressional guidelines experts welcome.

[2] Re: President-elect Trump, as soon as a Speaker is chosen, the election is licensed, and he takes the oath of workplace, a contented ending would appear like this: “Congratulations, you’re nonetheless my agent.”