US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think

Dave:
We hear a variety of adverse issues in regards to the US financial system or at the very least a variety of social media and let’s face it, the common media pushes a variety of doom and gloom tales about what’s occurring fiscally and economically on this nation. However right this moment we’re going to take a step again and have a look at how the US financial system right this moment in late 2024 compares to the remainder of the world and we’re going to be bringing on among the best economists and forecasters within the nation to share what he thinks is in retailer for the broader American financial system, not only for this 12 months, however properly into the longer term.

Dave:
Hey everybody, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and right this moment we’re going to be joined once more by Joe Brusuelas. He’s been on the present earlier than speaking in regards to the International Financial system Tremendous widespread present, so we introduced him again on. If you happen to don’t keep in mind, Joe is the principal and chief economist as RSM. He’s been named among the best financial forecasters on the market by Bloomberg, and right this moment we’re going to speak to him about the place the US sits globally and the way we stack as much as different economies. We’ll speak about China’s financial slowdown. We’ll speak in regards to the battle within the Center East and what that might imply for oil costs. We’ll additionally get Joe’s tackle the largest financial dangers going through the US and his prediction on the place fed charges will land within the subsequent 12 months, and I’m going to provide you slightly little bit of a spoiler. Joe has a refreshingly optimistic however very candid view of the US financial system and he understands it in addition to anybody. He’s bought a variety of information, info, expertise to again up his opinions and for those who’re like me, you’ll like what he has to say about the way forward for the US financial system. With that, let’s convey on Joe.

Dave:
Joe, welcome again to On the Market. Thanks for being right here right this moment.

Joe:
Thanks for having me on. It’s at all times good to speak to you, Dave.

Dave:
Properly, we don’t at all times speak in regards to the international financial system right here and in the marketplace, so I feel it will be useful for those who may perhaps simply give us a abstract of the worldwide financial system and form of the place the US sits by way of competitiveness, progress, inflation, all the important thing indicators. How does the US stack up in opposition to the remainder of the world proper now?

Joe:
Okay. Properly, I suppose two issues. The primary is is that we have now seen the primary tentative steps of what we will name the worldwide restoration. It will seem that the preliminary value shock attributable to the shutdown of provide chains through the pandemic has now ebbed. Central banks have seen the financial system start to recuperate and so they’re now engaged in a close to synchronized set of central financial institution price cuts. Whereas progress will not be going to be spectacular, it’s going to be stable in all probability into three to three.2% selection for your complete 12 months. Now, the US, due to the mixed fiscal and financial firepower put to work through the pandemic emerged first, and what we’re seeing on this first section of the publish pandemic financial system is that the US is wanting rather a lot stronger its progress price via mid-year 3.1% on a 12 months in the past foundation. Dave, we spent a variety of time occupied with the true financial system in my enterprise and actual closing non-public demand that’s one of the best proxy for the financial system.

Joe:
It’s up 2.6% and it’s been pegged there for higher a part of a 12 months now. So the US financial system is doing fairly properly even because it cools into the top of the 12 months no longer simply progress but in addition inflation as we converse. The general inflation price, the underlying inflation price’s round 2.5%, maybe a bit decrease, and once more, the US is simply merely outperforming its G seven friends. What’s most necessary is that previous to the pandemic, US attracted about 18 to twenty% of capital flows around the globe popping out of the pandemic. It’s greater than 30%, and one will get the sense that the mixed influence of US industrial coverage as coverage designed to assist toddler industries like synthetic intelligence and to be sure that the taking part in area with respect to commerce is leveled out along with the availability and chain resilience insurance policies which have been put in place and the primary steps in direction of a extra sustainable set of environmental insurance policies all are working to draw capital from around the globe.

Joe:
Furthermore, since 2021, in our personal inner surveys, we may see a transfer by corporations to start substituting very subtle expertise for a scarcity of labor. That lack of labor was attributable to the long run demographic modifications that had been going via, the grain getting old and exit of the infant boomers from the workforce, after which additionally an extended interval of funding in expertise that’s now starting to reap and positive factors. Now, it’s attention-grabbing, it doesn’t fairly embody synthetic intelligence, however the level is now that that lengthy interval of funding is de facto starting to repay US productiveness is up 2.7% on a 12 months over 12 months foundation. That’s one of the best. For the reason that interval of 1995 to 2004, the US comes, it’s simply outperforming, however that enchancment in productiveness, that’s the magical elixir, the key sauce if you’ll,

Joe:
That enables the financial system to develop quicker, have a decrease unemployment price and value stability. Proper? Ought to we proceed to see this and I feel we are going to as a result of we’re simply seeing the tip of the spear round synthetic intelligence. It’s going to alter the underlying construction of not solely the US financial system however the international financial system going ahead. There are good and nice issues taking place throughout the American financial system, and it’s good that we speak about them as a result of too many instances the doom and gloom crew on the market have the initiative. It’s at all times simpler to sound smarter if you’re being hypercritical or stating the shortcomings about what’s occurring available in the market or the financial system, however I bought to inform you what we’re seeing right here. The baseline means that we’re going to be onwards and upwards with this financial system for plenty of years, and that’s a superb factor to speak about.

Dave:
I adore it. Yeah, I imply, I really feel like we hear a variety of negativity in regards to the financial system, however a lot of the information means that the US continues to be actually aggressive, even within the mild of seeing a variety of recession warnings, labor market softening. I feel there are some broader developments that you just’ve been seeing. One query I need to ask although, is the US outperforming as a result of we’re at a interval of power or are among the beforehand robust opponents like China simply form of fading away?

Joe:
Properly, I feel it’s slightly little bit of each that among the challenges to the financial system across the pandemic have simply ended, proper? The financial system’s normalizing now on a 12 months in the past foundation, we’re up 3.1% via the center a part of the 12 months, and that’s not going to be sustainable. We’re going to maneuver again to a development slightly below a 2%, proper round 1.8%, in order the financial system cools, you need to anticipate to see demand for hiring. Cool. Bear in mind a 12 months in the past the unemployment price was 3.4%, okay? That’s too low. Out of 2022 into early 2023, the financial system was susceptible to overheating, proper? The truth that we’ve been in a position to obtain that delicate touchdown, in different phrases, are nonetheless in full employment with the financial system cooling and value stability returning means we’ve achieved the aims of the exit from the pandemic. The financial system didn’t crash. Now, I do know that there’s an enormous doom and gloom crew on the market for 2 years they’ve been predicting recession in a sure level. It’s like being a damaged clock. That’s proper. Twice a day, proper? They’ll be proper finally, but it surely doesn’t appear to be the financial system is susceptible to recession or can be falling into one within the close to time period, and it’s unlucky that that discourse achieve predominance in some quarters as a result of there are rational buyers and good hardworking people who find themselves actually lacking out on what’s taking place proper now within the financial system.

Dave:
We’ve to take a fast break, however extra from Joe Bruce Suela after we return. Welcome again to On the Market. Since we do speak extra in regards to the American financial system on the present and you’re an skilled within the international financial system, I’d like to only contact on among the main storylines within the international financial system as a result of to me what you’re saying in regards to the American state of affairs is sensible. The variable that makes me slightly fearful is simply form of like a black swan occasion as a result of it simply looks like there’s a lot geopolitical instability proper now. So what are the primary tales on a geopolitical international financial system stage that you just suppose are necessary right this moment?

Joe:
Properly, at the beginning, it’s the position standing and dangers across the folks’s republic of China. China for near 30 years noticed close to double digit price progress on a mean foundation. Properly, China’s REITs, what economists would name a center revenue lure, that their enterprise mannequin, that was the first driver in progress modernization, huge funding in industrial, residential actual property, after which subsidizing industries change into an export oriented progress mannequin have largely come to an finish. That mannequin goes to be required to alter, it’s going to want to evolve, however due to the distinctive political financial system of the PRC, you’ve an authoritarian authorities on prime of a market financial system underneath sure circumstances that may be very troublesome, and people circumstances are starting to approximate. China’s true progress price’s in all probability slowing to someplace round 2%. It’s home financial system, its family tempo of consumption has slowed considerably why they’re going via a basic debt and leveraging cycle altogether.

Joe:
Not too completely different from what the US went via between 2007 and 2014, and sadly with the Japanese financial system went via over a interval of a long time beginning within the early Nineteen Nineties till very just lately, and we’re undecided how that is going to evolve. Proper now, the Chinese language home political, fiscal and financial authority appears totally reluctant to reflate the home sector. By that I imply they should switch incomes from companies to households so as to get that financial system transferring in as a result of they’re unsure across the true situation of the underlying monetary sector. Furthermore, so as to maintain issues transferring as a result of what the Chinese language actually concern is a rise in unemployment and B, a rise inflation, they’re trying to export the burden of adjustment to its commerce companions. What which means is the Chinese language have directed that the political authorities directed the monetary sector to reallocate threat capital to manufacturing. Proper now, China’s bought an incredible oversupply of products and since they need to make their commerce companions soak up their adjustment by mainly telling them, you’re going to have to simply accept a smaller share of world manufacturing as we export our surplus capability. Now, Dave, if this was 1995 and even 2005, your complete world would’ve mentioned, yeah, we’ll try this. Proper?

Dave:
Why would they’ve accepted that?

Joe:
As a result of on the time we might’ve thought that this was a part of binding China to an current international order that it had a stake in in order that it will not search to overturn that order.

Dave:
Clearly,

Joe:
That didn’t find yourself the way in which that policymakers 30 or 40 years in the past thought. So we’re in a really completely different interval the place the main economies, the US, Europe, the united kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, are clearly not going to simply accept a smaller share of world manufacturing. That’s why we’ve seen the tariffs, the commerce wars, the geopolitical tensions which have clearly spilled over. I imply, the first goal of US industrial coverage is to restrict the capability of China to imagine and set international requirements round electrical autos and round subtle microchips. Furthermore, it’s to guard our toddler synthetic intelligence business and quantum. So there’s rather a lot there. The 2 outs without cost commerce are nationwide safety and toddler industries. The US has declared each. That’s why we’ve seen a change within the construction of the worldwide financial system, capital flows, by way of commerce. So we’re going to be in a interval of some stress for a superb time over China’s over capability and its try to export its burden of adjustment to its commerce companions.

Dave:
Are you able to say slightly bit extra about that, Joe, as a result of I’m curious what potential impacts on the US financial system there are from this case in China?

Joe:
Properly, it’s rather a lot lower than it will’ve been plenty of years in the past. Every quarter you may open up what’s referred to as the ten Qs and have a look at the stability sheets of the banks and see their publicity to completely different economies. Over the previous variety of years, the large banks have started to cut back their publicity to PRC, and that lessens the chance that contagion from an actual disaster in China would stream via the monetary channel. However the level is, for those who’re a forward-looking investor and also you’re fearful about threat, you may open up the ten Qs of the 100 or so systemically necessary monetary establishments, the large banks around the globe and see what the publicity is. There’s much more transparency than you’ll suppose given the neo conspiratorial speak that masquerades is standard knowledge in some quarters.

Dave:
Bought it. Properly, I haven’t even heard of that, however I’m guarantee reassured a bit at the very least that you just really feel that the majority American banks or western banks are in all probability not tremendous uncovered. I’m curious although, transferring on from China, for those who suppose there’s restricted threat coming from China proper now, are there different geopolitical conditions evolving that you just suppose do pose a much bigger threat or a much bigger alternative to the US financial system?

Joe:
Okay, so once I take into consideration the worldwide financial system, proper, as a result of my principal valley Wix see American financial system, however like everyone else for the reason that nice monetary disaster, you needed to change into an skilled on international economics as a result of it’s an interdependent, globally intertwined built-in financial system. When you consider international economics, you begin with commodities and vitality at all times and in all places first. You then transfer to industrial manufacturing due to the tumult within the Center East, and we’re now 10 months into the newest battle between Israel and its antagonists. Properly, you do take into consideration the worth of oil. Now my sense right here is that the US, the Norwegians, the Latins have all stepped up manufacturing proper now. We’re awash in a sea of oil globally, and there’s extra coming on-line as a consequence of what’s occurring in Africa and even among the rehabilitation of among the states within the Center East. So proper now, I’m not too involved a few value shock through the oil channel, however one at all times needs to be involved about occasions within the Center East spilling over right into a wider conflagration that entails the Israelis and the Iranians and their supporters. In order that’s the opposite main threat on the market, I feel proper now.

Dave:
Bought it. Okay. And that threat would come to the US largely via oil costs,

Joe:
It via the oil channel. Now, it’s necessary that we put this within the correct context, proper? The US is the main producer of oil on the planet now. It’s self-sufficient in terms of vitality. We really produce extra oil than we use, so we’re now exporting it. You might need observed gasoline costs this 12 months, Dave. They’re down virtually 9% from the height in April, and I took a have a look at wholesale gasoline futures as a result of earlier than we got here on, as a result of I believed we is perhaps speaking about this, we should always see one other 6% decline in gasoline costs, and that merely has to do with the tempo of home consumption. We change into extremely environment friendly in our home oil and vitality enterprise. The identical corporations that produce oil start to spend money on renewables a few decade in the past, and it’s beginning to bear fruit, however nonetheless, the worth for oil set globally, if there’s a disruption in provide of the Center East, it can hit our commerce companions and invariably that may influence us. In order that does stay to me that it’s the second greatest threat on the market of a black swan if that’s the way you need to elevate it to the worldwide

Dave:
Financial system. Thanks for explaining that. I feel these are two international conditions that I and our viewers can wrap our heads round. So let’s simply return again to the us. You appear bullish on the US financial system. What’s your for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, what ought to we anticipate?

Joe:
Properly, we anticipate to see long-term development like progress for the second half of the 12 months and into subsequent 12 months, that means proper round 2% with some upside threat. There’s an incredible fiscal tailwind behind the US financial system having to do with the rebuilding of its infrastructure, the availability chains. We’ve a kind of new chip factories about 20 miles from the place I stay. You should see it, Dave. It’s unbelievable. You bought to go? No, I bought to go. Yeah. I’ve been in a position to tour the manufacturing facility right here in Texas and the 2 out in Arizona. Cool. You understand what it’s prefer it simply as an apart, again within the nineties, we used to play this recreation referred to as Sim Metropolis. You form of construct civilization, proper?

Dave:
Oh, I do know it. In fact,

Joe:
You may exit Tyler, Texas and watch round Tyler how civilization is being constructed from the substructure that’s being put in to assist the whole lot to the highways, to the townhomes, the condos, the only household residences, and the entire life-style facilities which can be springing as much as assist all this, proper? I’m really speaking to a agency in Europe that’s occupied with investing in wealth administration in Tyler, Texas to anticipate the explosion of the increase across the constructing of those fabs. Wow. That’s why one of many elements and the explanation why I’m very bullish on the ahead look across the financial system, since you’re going to see not solely central Texas, not solely Phoenix, Scottsdale, however you’re going to see Ohio and upstate New York, Columbus, Ohio on the realm on Cornell and upstate New York be the recipient of funding because of the primary determination by the US to create resilient provide chains round probably the most superior and complicated expertise, and I’m anticipating we’re going to see extra of this second with the US unemployment price sitting round 4.3 now.

Joe:
We predict it’ll end round 4 and a half on the finish of the 12 months. That’s traditionally low inflation is ebbing, which which means actual incomes are going up. For the previous 15 months, the typical employees seeing a rise of their incomes over inflation. The argument we’re having with one another about grocery costs, when you account for hours labored and revenue above inflation, grocery costs, what it takes to work or to pay for every week’s of grocery costs is true again to the place it was in 2019. Now, that’s nothing. I’m going to go stand in entrance of a college board with the PTA and inform them, proper? Folks throw eggs and tomatoes at you, they merely received’t imagine you but it’s empirically true and over time, economics has a humorous method of trumping ideology and politics and that actuality will happen as a result of every family is continuing via the adjustment publish inflation shock otherwise.

Joe:
Some have already made their adjustment and moved on, others are within the midst it and others, it’s going to take some time, proper? There’s no two households which can be alike, however I’m assured that that adjustment will happen. We’ve bought a dynamic financial system that’s rising. It’s turning into much less fragile by the day as we harden these provide chains, as we transfer in direction of a distinct stability by way of the general financial system, sure, there are dangers. There are at all times going to be challenges and there are at all times going to be issues, however to me, the financial system appears to be like prefer it’s on a way more sturdier basis than it did in 2019.

Dave:
Wow. Joe, you’re getting me fired up in regards to the American financial system. I really like this optimistic view. Time for one final fast break, however after the break, we’re going to listen to from Joe on his predictions in regards to the US financial system and the place the Fed funds price may land within the subsequent 12 months. Hey, buyers, let’s bounce again in. You probably did say there’s dangers although, so what are the dangers that you just see?

Joe:
Alright, properly, we clearly have had a structural change in how and the place we work between 20 and 30% of us work from home and work from home completely. That’s brought on a difficulty in industrial actual property.

Dave:
Positive has.

Joe:
I used to be simply studying a narrative this morning about how within the main metros, there’s a juxtaposition that’s shaped within the class, a industrial actual property sector. The newer buildings with the facilities and the expertise, they’re full. They’re over capability

Dave:
Workplace area, you imply?

Joe:
Workplace area? Yeah. The older workplace area that doesn’t have that, these capabilities, there’s some actual issues. Now, one doesn’t need to low cost the monetary exercise that’s going to go on in industrial actual property. Certainly in 2023, March, April. Bear in mind the mini disaster across the state and native banks,

Joe:
There are banks which can be going to fail. They’re going to be issues. Nearly all of these notes are held in these state and native banks, and it’s going to take some time to work via that. Nevertheless, it’s not a systemic threat. It’s extra of a neighborhood financial threat, however that’s a part of it. Second, there’s a wall of maturing company debt. It’s going to should be handled over the following two to a few years. It’s about $3 trillion in debt. It’s the debt that was issued on the backside of the pandemic 20 20, 20 21 when rates of interest had been very low. So consider 800 million that was issued close to 0% in actual phrases, properly, most company money owed 5 years. We’re going to maneuver into the primary classic that’s 5 years previous and it’s going to should be rolled over. Properly, let’s say it was issued at 2%. Properly, we’re going to roll that over. It’s going to be nearer to 5 to eight%. Is it going to be 800 million? No, it’s going to be extra like 500 million.

Dave:
Yeah. Can I simply bounce in Joe and clarify to everybody what this implies for individuals who don’t know company debt, identical to the US can subject bonds to lift capital firms subject debt.

Joe:
That’s proper,

Dave:
And so they had been getting it tremendous low cost identical to everybody else was getting tremendous low cost debt through the pandemic, and it seems like what you’re saying, Joe, is that firms are going to need to reissue this debt. They want the working capital, however at the next price, which I assume impacts their cashflow.

Joe:
That’s proper. So not like you who may’ve purchased a home and had a 30 12 months fastened mortgage, the speed received’t change till you promote it.

Dave:
Yep.

Joe:
Companies sometimes tackle debt in a 5 12 months increments or much less, so each 5 years they should roll over that debt and refinance it. So let me make it actual easy. An $800 million mortgage by a big agency taken out at 5% in 2020 will doubtless be rolled over, however not at those self same phrases. It’ll in all probability be extra like 500 million at 8%, let’s say. Proper? Simply to make it straightforward to get your head wrapped round it, okay. Into the hole, that 300 million that must be funded, non-public fairness and personal credit score will step in, which is why we at all times need to ensure that we all know what’s occurring and the well being of personal fairness and personal credit score. That’s one thing that might trigger a slowdown in hiring and a slowdown in total financial exercise. Now, having mentioned that, as a result of I outlined the dangers industrial actual property and the maturity wall of debt that’s going to should be rolled over the functioning of American capital markets during the last 12 months has been nothing in need of important. We simply haven’t seen an actual drawback rolling over that debt within the monetary exercise from the industrial actual property sector, and it appears to be like to me with the Federal Reserve starting to embark on its price reducing cycle right here in September that we’re going to have the ability to try this too, and I feel we should always speak slightly bit about that price reducing cycle as a method of coming again full circle to the beginning of the present

Dave:
Earlier than we go into the speed lower cycle, which I do need to speak about. We’ve been listening to and speaking about on the present quite a bit, this impending adjustment correction reckoning in industrial actual property. Why has it taken so lengthy?

Joe:
Okay, so it’s in nobody’s curiosity both the folks holding the loans or the entities which have to interact in a disorderly panic. Second, US financial system’s $27 trillion. It’s an enormous, enormous dynamic animal. These giant sums, about 101 and a half trillion {dollars} was the estimate that needed to be rolled in CRE at first of the 12 months to the mere mortal. That appears, oh my god, that’s enormous. That’s going to trigger a recession. No, it’s not. It’s merely not giant sufficient. It could trigger issues in sure localities the place the non-performing loans put constraints on native banks to assist regional financial exercise. Yeah, I feel North Texas, proper? We are able to see issues slowing down in North Texas. It’s within the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Regional Survey. You may inform that the elevated interval of rates of interest mixed with the power or constraints round these native banks to make loans as a consequence of the truth that they’re holding a big portfolio of non-performing loans or semi non-performing loans is inflicting a few of these areas to decelerate, but it surely’s not enough in and of itself to trigger a systemic drawback or to trigger the general financial system itself to decelerate.

Joe:
I’m simply sufficiently old to recollect the financial savings and mortgage disaster of the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties that contributed considerably to what was the top of the large Reagan Nineteen Eighties period increase. This simply isn’t that.

Dave:
All proper. Properly, I suppose we’ll have to only wait and see the way it performs out, however I’m glad to listen to that you just don’t suppose it’s going to trigger some systemic shock. Last item I need to chat with you about right here right this moment, Joe, is what you alluded to earlier, the fed decreasing cycle. Inform us what you make of the Fed’s place proper now and the way it may play out over the following few years.

Joe:
Okay. On the Jackson Gap Financial Symposium, the Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell was very specific. It’s time for a coverage pivot. Rates of interest are going to begin to come down now. Proper now, the federal funds price sitting between 5.25 and 5.5%. We anticipate that we’re going to get a string of 25 foundation level price cuts. The danger is that they may very well be bigger if hiring slows or there’s one thing going mistaken within the exterior financial system that impinges on the home financial system. It’s not a lot the primary price lower that issues or the second or third, it’s the vacation spot. Now, we predict primarily based on our, what’s referred to as estimation of the response perform of the Federal Reserve or the estimation of what’s the optimum rate of interest given prevailing circumstances within the financial system, will trigger the Federal Reserve to decrease that by about 200 foundation factors to round someplace between three and three.5%, and we predict they’ll get there within the second half of subsequent 12 months.

Joe:
That’s going to supply fairly the enhance to the home financial system. It is going to enable one to refinance their mortgage price in the event that they purchased a house during the last 12 months, 12 months and a half, refinance auto charges. If you happen to’ve taken out a mortgage during the last two years, it can decrease the rate of interest cost on revolving debt. It is going to assist the federal authorities to roll over debt at cheaper charges. As these charges come down, you’ll see what we name the time period spectrum of curiosity. Charges from two to 5 years reset decrease. We predict the entrance finish will reset a lot decrease, and for those who’re a shopper, you need to watch that 10 12 months price. In fact, for those who’re in enterprise and also you want capital to broaden your enterprise, you need to focus like a laser being on what’s referred to as the stomach of the curve from two to 5 years typically, and that 5 12 months particularly right this moment, the US 5 years buying and selling at 3.65%.

Joe:
Okay, you’re a agency. You need to take out 100 million {dollars}. You need to broaden manufacturing and go rent folks. Okay, good. Try this. Why? Properly, 3.65%, you need to much less out the inflation price, two level a half. Meaning the true price of return is 1.15. Because the time period shifts decrease, it can price you much less to broaden your agency through American capital markets. That’s a essentially good factor. We’ll put a ground into the financial system, we’ll put a ceiling on prime of how excessive unemployment can go, and mainly, Dave, we’re all going to lastly get on with it. We’ll have the ability to look again and rear view mirror and say the pandemic period is definitely over.

Dave:
Wow. You’re painted a reasonably image, Joe. I prefer it and I hope you’re proper, however you’re clearly very knowledgeable opinions right here, and I hope that for all of us that this optimistic view of a rising secure, such as you mentioned, dynamic American financial system is strictly what we’re going to get. Joe, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us right this moment. We are going to put hyperlinks to Joe’s analysis, his contact info within the present notes as we at all times do. Thanks for becoming a member of us right this moment, Joe.

Joe:
Thank You, Dave.It was at all times a pleasure

Dave:
In the marketplace, was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The present is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with enhancing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content material, and we need to prolong an enormous thanks to everybody at BiggerPockets for making this present attainable.