2024 Election Voter Turnout Map: See Where Trump Gained and Harris Lost

Change in votes in contrast with 2020

It could look like a transparent story: Donald Trump gained the election by successful probably the most votes. He improved on his totals, including about 2.5 million extra votes than 4 years in the past. However simply as consequential to the result have been Kamala Harris’s losses: She earned about 7 million fewer votes in contrast with Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s efficiency in 2020.

Ms. Harris failed to search out new voters in three of the seven swing states and in 80 p.c of counties throughout the nation, a New York Occasions evaluation exhibits. Within the locations the place she matched or exceeded Mr. Biden’s vote totals, she didn’t match Mr. Trump’s positive factors.

The place every candidate obtained extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

We will’t but know what number of Biden voters backed Mr. Trump or didn’t vote in any respect this cycle. However the decline in assist for Ms. Harris in a few of the nation’s most liberal areas is especially notable. In contrast with Mr. Biden, she misplaced lots of of hundreds of votes in main cities together with Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, and total earned about 10 p.c fewer votes in counties Mr. Biden gained 4 years in the past.

Mr. Trump, against this, discovered new voters in most counties, with important positive factors in pink states like Texas and Florida and likewise in blue states like New Jersey and New York.

Change in votes by county partisanship, in contrast with 2020

Closely Democratic	–12%	+3%
Reasonably Democratic	–10%	+3%
Lean Democratic	–6%	+3%
Lean Republican	–6%	+4%
Reasonably Republican	–5%	+3%
Closely Republican	–2%	+4%

Larry Sabato, the director of the Middle for Politics on the College of Virginia, acknowledged that Biden voters who swung towards Mr. Trump performed a component in Ms. Harris’s loss, however pointed to low Democratic turnout because the bigger issue.

“They only weren’t excited,” Mr. Sabato mentioned of Democratic voters. “They have been most likely disillusioned by inflation, perhaps the border. And so they didn’t have the motivation to rise up and exit to vote.”

The nationwide rightward shift is a continuation of voting patterns seen within the final two elections. Even in his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump discovered new voters throughout the nation. (Each events earned extra votes in 2020 than in 2016.) And though Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022, when some had predicted a “pink wave,” they misplaced many citizens who have been dissatisfied with rising costs, pandemic-era restrictions and immigration coverage.

On the native degree, three distinct patterns assist illustrate the general final result in 2024:

1. The place each candidates gained votes, however Trump gained extra.

In hard-fought Georgia, each events discovered new voters, however Mr. Trump outperformed Ms. Harris. For instance, in Fulton County, which incorporates most of Atlanta, Ms. Harris gained about 4,500 votes, however Mr. Trump gained greater than 7,400.

Along with his positive factors within the Atlanta space, Mr. Trump gained new voters in each different a part of Georgia. He flipped the state again to Republicans after Mr. Biden’s win there in 2020. He equally outran Ms. Harris the place she made positive factors in Wake County, N.C., Lancaster County, Pa., and Montgomery County, Texas.

2. The place Trump gained a bit of and Harris misplaced a bit of.

In Milwaukee County in swing-state Wisconsin, Ms. Harris misplaced 1,200 voters in contrast with Mr. Biden’s whole in 2020, whereas Mr. Trump gained greater than 3,500.

Ms. Harris nonetheless gained the county at giant, however her margins there and in different liberal enclaves of Wisconsin weren’t sufficient to carry off Mr. Trump’s victories in rural, blue-collar counties that voted Republican in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats’ incapacity to keep up their vote totals in battleground states was additionally obvious within the essential areas round Charlotte, N.C., Flint, Mich., and Scranton, Pa.

3. The place Trump gained a bit of and Harris misplaced so much.

Mr. Trump gained Florida’s Miami-Dade County, changing into the primary Republican to take action since 1988. However once more, Ms. Harris’s loss was simply as a lot of the story as his acquire: Mr. Trump gained about 70,000 new votes within the county, whereas she misplaced practically 140,000.

Different counties that Mr. Trump flipped had related vote disparities. In 21 of those 77 counties, Mr. Trump acquired fewer votes on this election than in 2020, however the Democratic vote drop-off was a lot steeper. This occurred from coast to coast, from Fresno County, Calif., to Pinellas County, Fla.

Joel Benenson, the chief pollster for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, mentioned he thought Democratic turnout was harm by the social gathering’s lack of a presidential major. (Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July.) That course of, he mentioned, helps energize core voters who get entangled with volunteering, making cellphone calls and knocking on doorways early within the yr.

“That was an actual problem for Vice President Harris, who had a brief runway and would have benefited from an actual major season,” Mr. Benenson mentioned. “Republicans had a contested major — even with a former president, they didn’t simply hand it to him.”

Mr. Trump was clearly capable of harness enthusiasm past his base. He made positive factors throughout virtually all teams ranging in demographics, training and revenue, together with those who historically made up the Democratic coalition. Ms. Harris didn’t match Mr. Biden among the many similar teams.

Change in votes by county kind, in contrast with 2020

Majority Black	–12%	–4%
Majority Hispanic	–18%	+7%
City	–12%	+3%
Excessive revenue	–9%	+3%
Extremely educated	–9%	+3%
Retirement locations	–2%	+8%

Pre-election polls confirmed minority voters swinging towards Mr. Trump, and he appeared to make positive factors with these teams. He picked up votes in majority-Hispanic counties and in Black neighborhoods of main cities, a preliminary evaluation of precinct information exhibits. However he misplaced votes, as did Ms. Harris, in majority-Black counties, particularly these within the South the place turnout dropped total.

Mr. Trump discovered new voters in additional than 30 states, together with within the battleground states that have been the websites of strong campaigning. His positive factors have been modest in most different locations. Ms. Harris was capable of enhance on Mr. Biden’s efficiency in solely 4 of the seven battlegrounds and simply 5 states total.

Change in votes by state,
in contrast with 2020

Faucet columns to kind. Swing states are in daring.

Arizona	-5%	+6%
Georgia	+3%	+8%
Michigan	-3%	+6%
Nevada	+0.2%	+12%
North Carolina	+1%	+5%
Pennsylvania	-1%	+5%
Wisconsin	+2%	+5%
Alabama	-9%	+1%
Alaska	-11%	-5%
Arkansas	-7%	-0.3%
California	-18%	-1%
Colorado	-4%	+1%
Connecticut	-8%	+3%
Delaware	-2%	+7%
Florida	-12%	+8%
Hawaii	-15%	-2%
Idaho	-4%	+9%
Illinois	-12%	-0.2%
Indiana	-7%	-0.9%
Iowa	-7%	+3%
Kansas	-7%	-4%
Kentucky	-9%	+1%
Louisiana	-10%	-4%
Maine	+0.1%	+4%
Maryland	-7%	+4%
Massachusetts	-13%	+6%
Minnesota	-4%	+2%
Mississippi	-20%	-6%
Missouri	-5%	+2%
Montana	-5%	+2%
Nebraska	-1%	+1%
New Hampshire	-2%	+8%
New Jersey	-15%	+4%
New Mexico	-5%	+5%
New York	-16%	+7%
North Dakota	-2%	+5%
Ohio	-8%	-1%
Oklahoma	-0.9%	+2%
Oregon	-10%	-5%
Rhode Island	-8%	+7%
South Carolina	-6%	+7%
South Dakota	-2%	+4%
Tennessee	-8%	+6%
Texas	-9%	+8%
Utah	+0.4%	+2%
Vermont	-3%	+6%
Virginia	-7%	+2%
Washington	-6%	-4%
West Virginia	-9%	-2%
Wyoming	-5%	-0.5%
District of Columbia	-9%	+12%

John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign pollster, mentioned the marketing campaign was targeted on discovering supporters who weren’t dependable voters and ensuring they turned out to the polls. He mentioned that inside polling confirmed that voters who forged a poll in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 p.c to 46 p.c.

“The technique was very very similar to 2016, to carry out informal voters who thought the nation was on the flawed monitor,” Mr. McLaughlin mentioned. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and usually had constructive approval for Trump.”

Notes

County election outcomes are from the Related Press. The county evaluation relies on information for counties the place counting was at the very least 94 p.c full as of Nov. 19. Outcomes for Alaska are statewide.

The 2024 precinct outcomes are from the Georgia Secretary of State, the Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections and the Milwaukee County Clerk. The 2024 precinct boundary information are from state and native officers. The 2020 precinct outcomes for Atlanta and Miami-Dade are from the Voting and Election Science Crew. For Milwaukee’s 2020 precincts, The Occasions used a knowledge set by John D. Johnson of Marquette Regulation Faculty primarily based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Know-how Companies Bureau.

In Atlanta and Miami, The Occasions used information from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote inside 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates have been used to calculate the change within the variety of votes for every candidate in 2024, in contrast with 2020.

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