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Up to date on Could twenty fourth, 2022 by Jonathan Weber
The marijuana {industry} continues to expertise a number of progress. A number of international locations around the globe have already moved to legalized leisure marijuana. Within the U.S., 18 states plus DC have legalized leisure marijuana already, with many extra having legalized medicinal use – 39 in whole. It’s probably that extra states will comply with go well with within the coming years, and finally, there is perhaps federal legalization of marijuana within the US.
Whereas this naturally results in a probably important funding alternative, traders would do effectively to recollect a few of the {industry} bubbles of the previous. For instance, the tech bubble of the late 1990’s is a continuing reminder that speedy {industry} progress alone doesn’t assure investing success. Selecting the highest-quality corporations (or least dangerous shares) in a rising {industry} could make a world of distinction for returns.
This text takes a deep dive into the marijuana {industry}, looking for the very best marijuana shares as we speak. Surprisingly, there are over 100 to select from with full or partial publicity to the marijuana {industry}.
Click on the hyperlink under to obtain our free Excel spreadsheet of greater than 100 marijuana shares.
Desk of Contents
Business Overview
The hashish plant will be divided into 2 broad classes based mostly on tetrahydrocannabinol [THC] content material:
- Excessive THC – what we regularly seek advice from as marijuana
- Almost no THC – what we regularly seek advice from as hemp
Marijuana has leisure and pharmaceutical makes use of whereas hemp has primarily industrial makes use of.
Curiously, THC is certainly one of greater than 480 identified substances within the plant, with greater than 60 of these being cannabinoids.
Marijuana can be utilized both by smoking, by vaporizing, as content material in meals or drinks, or as an extract.
Marijuana Use & Legality Round The Globe
Over the past couple of years, marijuana legal guidelines across the globe have been relaxed in lots of circumstances, an growing variety of international locations (and US states) have legalized the medical, and in some circumstances the leisure, use of marijuana. The drug has thus far not been legalized on the federal degree within the US, although. The picture under reveals legalization by nation/state, blue international locations and states enable leisure hashish use, whereas inexperienced international locations and states enable the medical use of hashish.
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Marijuana has been partially or totally legalized in round 50 international locations as of Could 2022. Normally, medical marijuana has been legalized whereas the leisure use of marijuana has not (but) been legalized.
In Canada, marijuana was totally legalized on the federal degree in 2018. A number of different international locations, corresponding to Germany and Mexico, have decriminalized the use and possession of small quantities of marijuana.
Within the majority of US states marijuana has been no less than partially legalized, and the variety of these states has grown steadily lately.
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18 states, in addition to the District of Columbia, enable the leisure use of marijuana by adults, with age restrictions starting from 18 to 21.
In these international locations and US states the place marijuana has not been legalized, marijuana remains to be used commonly. It’s the mostly used unlawful drug in each the world, in addition to in america, the place a 2021 examine discovered that 49% of People had used the drug no less than as soon as. Globally, round 190 million individuals use marijuana for leisure functions yearly, based on UN estimates.
Medical Use Of Marijuana
Medical marijuana, additionally known as medical hashish, refers to marijuana that has been prescribed by docs to their sufferers as a type of therapy for quite a lot of signs. Proof means that the consumption of marijuana (or marijuana-based merchandise) can have optimistic impacts on sufferers with sure circumstances that aren’t defined by the placebo impact.
The use circumstances for medical marijuana embody:
- The therapy of nausea and vomiting for sufferers present process chemotherapy
- Growing urge for food for sufferers with an HIV/AIDS an infection
- The therapy of persistent ache (e.g. attributable to peripheral neuropathy) and muscle spasms
- The therapy of neurological points, corresponding to a number of sclerosis (MS), epilepsy, and motion issues.
- Sleep enchancment
- the discount of tics for sufferers with Tourette syndrome
- the therapy of post-traumatic stress dysfunction
In these international locations the place medical marijuana has been legalized, it oftentimes has solely been allowed for a few years. The medical marijuana market thus remains to be in a comparatively early section of progress.
Potential progress catalysts for the {industry} embody:
- Rising utilization in international locations which have legalized the usage of hashish
- Extra international locations legalizing the usage of hashish
A examine from 2022 counsel that the US authorized marijuana market (medical and leisure) will develop to as a lot as $80 billion by 2030. The report that was printed by Grand View Analysis sees an annual market progress charge in extra of 25% in that time-frame.
For docs to more and more prescribe medical marijuana as an alternative of opioid narcotics (which might trigger dependancy and severe uncomfortable side effects and are thus not essentially innocent) is seen as one other long-term progress driver for the usage of medical marijuana as a type of ache aid.
A very powerful geographic markets shall be these the place healthcare budgets are significant and the place marijuana has been (partially) legalized. This consists of america (states the place the usage of medical marijuana has been legalized), Canada, Israel, Australia, elements of Europe (Germany, Italy, France, The Netherlands), and elements of South America (Chile, Argentina).
Leisure Use Of Marijuana
Marijuana, the world’s mostly used unlawful drug, has a probably very vast (and rising) authorized leisure market.
Within the US, the leisure hashish market is forecasted to develop to $25 billion by 2025, though progress is forecasted to decelerate meaningfully over time – to simply 5%-10% a yr by the center of the present decade.
In accordance with this 2022 report, the leisure hashish market in Canada is producing gross sales of $11 billion a yr, whereas additionally sustaining greater than 90,000 jobs throughout manufacturing, retail, and so forth. Extra Canadians have began utilizing the drug lately because it has been legalized, whereas some customers who consumed illicit marijuana have shifted in direction of consuming regulated, authorized hashish as an alternative.
Regardless that marijuana has not been legalized in america on a federal degree, the US nonetheless has develop into a very powerful marketplace for leisure marijuana over time. Within the 18 states the place marijuana has been legalized, a quantity that can probably proceed to develop over the approaching years, leisure marijuana gross sales outpaced medical marijuana gross sales.
Forbes has forecasted that medical marijuana will make up simply 35% of world authorized marijuana gross sales in 2022, down from virtually 100% one decade earlier. We do imagine that it’s probably that leisure marijuana might proceed to realize market share versus medical marijuana, particularly if leisure marijuana will get legalized in extra international locations and states.
The worldwide peer market is projected to be value $685 billion by 2025. The worldwide tobacco market, for reference, is value about $700 billion yearly, with a low-single-digit progress charge. In comparison with these two markets, the leisure marijuana market nonetheless is somewhat small, which might point out a number of future upside. However, traders ought to take into account that beer and tobacco are authorized in additional markets around the globe in comparison with marijuana, which remains to be restricted in lots of elements of the world.
Analysts have been projecting important market progress for the worldwide marijuana markets for years. In recent times, the market has certainly grown meaningfully. But when the present progress projections for 2025-2030 don’t materialize, e.g. attributable to legalization adjustments or shifts in client conduct, or as a result of these projections have been unsuitable within the first place, these market measurement estimates might become manner too optimistic, thus traders ought to take these projections with a grain of salt.
Traders also needs to maintain the next assertion by Benjamin Graham in thoughts:
“Apparent prospects for bodily progress in a enterprise don’t translate into apparent income for traders.”
Market progress charges don’t essentially go hand in hand with excessive income for the firms which are lively on this respective market, they usually particularly don’t go hand in hand with significant shareholder payouts.
Progress shares which are priced for perfection can disappoint traders and produce underwhelming whole returns, even when the unique thesis about robust underlying progress charges for the {industry} proves true.
There are credible arguments to be made towards high-profit margins within the marijuana {industry}. These embody the truth that market entry limitations are usually not overly excessive — there are not any substantial community results, entry prices are usually not overly massive, and there are not any large technological benefits — and the truth that marijuana is an agricultural good.
Margins within the agricultural {industry} are notoriously low. Half of all agricultural companies generate working revenue margins (earlier than curiosity bills and earlier than taxes) of lower than 5%. It’s under no circumstances assured that the identical will apply to the marijuana market, however it’s attainable that industry-wide income within the marijuana {industry} could possibly be comparatively meager, regardless of a big market measurement.
In recent times, we’ve got already seen this play out to some extent. Regardless of additional legalization of marijuana in extra international locations and states, the shares of many hashish corporations have underwhelmed, as revenue margins are slim for a lot of of those corporations, and since valuations have been too excessive, which brought about a number of compression headwinds over time.
Investing In The Marijuana Business
There are a lot of publicly traded marijuana corporations, with the largest ones being situated in Canada, which isn’t stunning, as Canada is among the largest markets the place marijuana has been totally legalized. Corporations on this phase have totally different methods, corresponding to specializing in the medical marijuana market, or sure geographic markets.
There are a number of ETFs which traders can select if they’re bullish on the {industry} as an entire and if they don’t need to select amongst single corporations. The biggest certainly one of these ETFs is the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMLSF), which has a present internet asset worth of CAD4.45 per share (Could 2022).
The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF has moved down since our final replace. Share worth declines in a spread of hashish shares have brought about its internet asset worth to say no, and rising rates of interest and excessive inflation result in decrease curiosity from traders relating to investing in oftentimes barely worthwhile progress shares.
This ETF made two distributions in 2021, based on its truth sheet, however its estimated annualized yield of 0.81% is just not engaging for earnings traders and doesn’t add meaningfully to the ETF’s whole return potential. The Horizons Marijuana Life Science ETF has a comparatively excessive expense ratio of 0.86% yearly.
‘Pure Play’ Marijuana Shares
Traders who’re on this house can select from a big record of publicly traded corporations with direct publicity to the marijuana market, i.e. marijuana pure performs. These are corporations which derive all, or a overwhelming majority of, their revenues from the sale of marijuana and marijuana merchandise, for medical use and/or for leisure use.
Many massive gamers on this phase are Canada-based, however US-based corporations with significant market capitalizations exist as effectively. Outdoors of North America, there are not any massive gamers on this house, since different international locations the place (medical) marijuana has been legalized do oftentimes import marijuana from North American corporations as an alternative of manufacturing marijuana “at dwelling”.
Most marijuana corporations should not have a protracted historical past of revenues or earnings as a result of the authorized marijuana {industry} remains to be comparatively younger. It appears probably that these marijuana corporations with the best gross sales base and the biggest manufacturing capability have the best probability of producing above-average margins sooner or later. Causes for this embody economics of scale, working leverage, and the truth that these with essentially the most expertise are probably the very best at bringing down prices of manufacturing.
However, traders needs to be cautious to not overpay for shares – which is why the value for a inventory ought to at all times be checked out relative to metrics such because the earnings or the money flows that the corporate generates (on a per-share foundation).
That is the record of 10 of the biggest pureplay marijuana corporations by income technology:
- Aurora Hashish (ACB)
- Cover Progress (CGC)
- Tilray (TLRY)
- Cronos (CRON)
- Organigram (OGRMF)
- Cresco Labs (CRLBF)
- Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)
- Inexperienced Thumb Industries (GTBIF)
- Trulieve Hashish (TCNNF)
- Columbia Care (CCHWF)
Aphria, which was one of many largest marijuana corporations initially, acquired taken over by Tilray since our final replace. Of those, our prime three picks are the next ones:
Marijuana Pure Play Inventory: Trulieve Hashish Corp
Trulieve Hashish Corp isn’t the biggest marijuana pureplay firm by far. However its profitability is, in comparison with most of its friends, excellent, which makes it attention-grabbing for traders. Trulieve Hashish operates as a medical hashish firm that cultivates, produces, and distributes its merchandise itself, by means of dispensaries in its dwelling market Florida, however over time, Trulieve Hashish has additionally ventured into different markets, together with California, Arizona, Nevada, and a pair extra.
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In accordance with its personal knowledge, Trulieve sells roughly half of the medical marijuana that’s offered in Florida, regardless of working solely one-fourth of the dispensaries within the state. Its scale and enormous market share, particularly in its most necessary market, permits Trulieve Hashish to function with margins which are stronger than what we see from most of its friends.
For the present fiscal yr, 2022, Trulieve Hashish is forecasting income of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $450 to $500 million. This doesn’t solely level to a fairly stable EBITDA margin within the 30% vary, however the $450+ million EBITDA technology that’s anticipated for the present yr additionally leads to a valuation that doesn’t appear excessive in any respect. The corporate’s market capitalization stands at $2.7 billion, which implies that it’s valued at round 6x this yr’s anticipated adjusted EBITDA. In fact, internet income are significantly smaller attributable to depreciation, taxes, and so forth. However nonetheless, Trulieve Hashish is among the extra worthwhile hashish corporations, and surprisingly cheap on the similar time.
Marijuana Pure Play Inventory: Cover Progress
Cover Progress is, by market capitalization, one of many largest hashish corporations in Canada. One of many poster kids of the hashish investing increase (or bubble) a few years in the past, its worth and market capitalization have pulled again significantly over the past couple of years. That has made its valuation enhance, which is why it looks like a considerably higher funding as we speak.
Cover Progress isn’t worthwhile, not like Trulieve, however is producing stable income of round $400 to $500 million per yr, and the corporate has not too long ago introduced new cost-cutting measures. Mixed with some natural income progress, that ought to enhance profitability over time, all else equal.
Cover Progress has additionally been shifting its product portfolio in direction of branded client items corresponding to its sports activities vitamin merchandise underneath the BioSteel label:
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BioSteel and a few of Cover Progress’s different branded merchandise had a report quarter in Q1, which signifies that its shift in direction of this merchandise might assist enhance Cover’s enterprise progress over time. This technique might assist differentiate Cover Progress from its friends over time, and so long as its manufacturers are engaging, they may additionally assist Cover Progress generate enhancing margins over time, in comparison with the comparatively commoditized pure hashish manufacturing enterprise.
Marijuana Pure Play Inventory: Cresco Labs
Cresco Labs Inc. cultivates, manufactures, and sells each medical and retail hashish merchandise in US states the place it’s allowed to take action. Its merchandise embody flowers, vape pens, extracts, concentrates, but additionally shakes and popcorn. Not surprisingly, the corporate is lively in a variety of US markets, together with in necessary ones corresponding to Florida or California:
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The corporate generates compelling enterprise progress, as its income rose by 20% throughout the newest quarter. EBITDA, in the meantime, was up by 45% yr over yr, climbing to $51 million. That makes for a 24% EBITDA margin, which is rather less than that of Trulieve, however which remains to be removed from unhealthy.
Primarily based on its present EBITDA run charge, Cresco Labs is valued at round 6x EBITDA, which is kind of in step with Trulieve’s valuation. It needs to be famous that Cresco Labs is just not anticipated to be worthwhile on a GAAP internet revenue foundation this yr, attributable to depreciation, taxes, curiosity bills, and so forth. That’s to be anticipated and holds true for nearly all hashish corporations, nonetheless. Due to its encouraging progress and stable EBITDA margins, Cresco Labs ought to be capable of attain GAAP profitability within the not too distant future, we imagine.
Oblique-Publicity Marijuana Shares
Marijuana pure play shares have the issue that their valuations are usually not low in any respect, and that the majority of those corporations are usually not worthwhile but. It is usually not assured that they may (all) develop into worthwhile (attributable to attainable margin pressures for the {industry}). Final however not least traders don’t get any significant dividend yields from marijuana pure play shares.
For traders that don’t need to put money into marijuana pure play shares because of the causes outlined above, and that search publicity to the rising marijuana {industry} nonetheless, one risk is to put money into shares that aren’t marijuana pure performs, however which have some publicity to the {industry} nonetheless.
This primarily consists of client items corporations (beverage shares, tobacco shares) which have ventured into the marijuana house, however that proceed to generate nearly all of their revenues and earnings in one other {industry}. Our prime 5 picks amongst these corporations are analyzed under.
Oblique Marijuana Publicity Inventory: AbbVie
AbbVie (ABBV) is a biotech firm that’s lively in oncology and immunology primarily. AbbVie generates revenues of greater than $50 billion yearly and is extremely worthwhile, with its largest drug Humira taking part in an necessary function in each income and earnings technology.
AbbVie is seen by some as one of many first medical marijuana corporations, as its drug Marinol was the primary FDA-approved hashish drug. Marinol is used for the therapy of nausea and vomiting in sufferers enduring chemotherapy. Marinol can also be used for growing urge for food in sufferers with HIV/AIDS or sure cancers.
Marinol was not a big income driver for AbbVie up to now, as different medication have been bigger by way of their addressable market and relating to the costs the corporate might demand for them. AbbVie additionally offered Marinol to Alkem Labs some time in the past. One can argue whether or not AbbVie needs to be seen as a marijuana inventory, however the firm has been within the house and had FDA-approved merchandise in the marketplace. It appears attainable that AbbVie develops new merchandise that make the most of marijuana sooner or later, though there isn’t any assure of that.
Traders don’t have the excessive dangers which are related to an funding right into a marijuana pure play, however may nonetheless profit from progress of the medical marijuana {industry}. AbbVie trades at a reasonable valuation of simply 11 occasions 2022’s income proper now. AbbVie additionally affords a sizeable dividend yield of three.7% proper right here. Resulting from its yield, its low valuation, and its share worth upside potential AbbVie is certainly one of our favourite Dividend Aristocrat buys as we speak.
Oblique Marijuana Publicity Inventory: Altria
Altria (MO) is among the largest tobacco corporations on the planet. Altria produces and sells cigarettes underneath the Marlboro model within the US. The corporate additionally sells a number of different cigarette manufacturers, cigar manufacturers, and non-smokeable tobacco merchandise to spherical out the corporate’s product portfolio. As well as, Altria owns a ten% stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), which is among the world’s largest beer corporations.
As a tobacco firm Altria is primed for an growth into the marijuana house, which is why the corporate has taken a stake in Canadian marijuana firm Cronos. In December 2018 Altria agreed to pay $1.8 billion for a forty five% stake in Cronos. Moreover Altria has an possibility to amass one other 10% at a set worth. Since then, there was hypothesis that Altria may make a bid to take over Cronos fully, with these rumors boiling up once more in 2021. Thus far, no deal to amass all of Cronos has been introduced, nonetheless, and it’s removed from sure that such a deal shall be crafted sooner or later.
In comparison with Altria’s market capitalization of $96 billion its Cronos stake is just not overly massive, but it surely supplies an entry into this probably massive market. In case marijuana will get legalized within the US on a federal degree, Altria might probably broaden into this house very quick due to the know-how that the corporate acquires by means of its stake in Cronos and thru Altria’s established (tobacco) gross sales channels throughout all the United States.
Altria is extremely worthwhile, trades at simply 11 occasions 2022’s earnings, and affords a hefty dividend yield of seven.1% which makes it a excessive dividend inventory. We imagine that Altria is a compelling choose for traders that search an earnings funding with some potential upside by means of a side-venture within the marijuana house.
Oblique Marijuana Publicity Inventory: Related British Meals
Related British Meals (ASBFY) is a London, UK, based mostly firm that’s lively in a number of industries. The corporate operates within the sugar manufacturing and agricultural industries, but it surely additionally produces drinks, cereals, and different meals merchandise. Final however not least, Related British Meals has established itself as a low-cost attire retailer with its Primark model.
Related British Meals has ventured into the marijuana {industry} by turning into a marijuana cultivator and provider to the medical {industry}. In contrast to many marijuana pure performs, Related British Meals is extremely worthwhile and produces sizeable money flows due to its different companies, which implies that this can be a lower-risk inventory, that might probably develop its marijuana enterprise at a quick tempo by means of natural investments due to its money technology from different enterprise models.
As Related British Meals is skilled in rising farm merchandise and producing snacks and drinks, which provides the corporate the potential to introduce marijuana-containing merchandise snacks and drinks, the growth into the marijuana {industry} looks like an inexpensive transfer.
Related British Meals, which is valued at $16 billion as we speak, trades at 13 occasions this yr’s earnings, which isn’t a excessive valuation in any respect. Related British Meals affords a dividend yielding 2.7%, which is greater than what traders can get from the broad market. The corporate has raised its dividend commonly and at an ample tempo up to now.
Oblique Marijuana Publicity Inventory: Constellation Manufacturers
Constellation Manufacturers (STZ) is among the largest alcoholic drinks corporations on the planet. Constellation Manufacturers is concentrated on the wine and spirits markets, but it surely owns a small beer phase as effectively.
Constellation Manufacturers made information when the corporate introduced a $4 billion funding in Canadian marijuana firm Cover Progress. This deal diluted Cover Progress’s present shareholders, but it surely gave Constellation Manufacturers a considerable place within the marijuana {industry}.
Constellation Manufacturers sees important potential for marijuana-infused drinks, and attributable to its expertise within the drinks {industry} and its present gross sales networks Constellation Manufacturers will probably develop into one of many largest gamers on this (probably massive) market.
Even when this enterprise doesn’t work out, Constellation Manufacturers would stay a worthwhile firm, and traders would probably not endure an excessive amount of from a failure on this house. At present, Constellation Manufacturers trades at 21 occasions this yr’s earnings, which isn’t low-cost, however which additionally isn’t particularly costly in comparison with what number of different alcoholic drinks corporations are valued.
Traders get a dividend that yields 1.4% from Constellation Manufacturers, which isn’t actually quite a bit, however higher than what one receives from pure-play hashish shares, as these usually make no dividend funds in any respect. On the similar time, the stake in Cover Progress permits for substantial upside potential in case issues go effectively.
Oblique Marijuana Publicity Inventory: Molson Coors
Molson Coors (TAP) is a beverage firm as effectively, however not like Constellation Manufacturers, it’s centered on the worldwide beer market. Molson Coors, which is predicated in Denver, CO, has moved into the marijuana {industry} by means of a three way partnership with Hydropothecary, a Canada-based marijuana producer. The three way partnership focuses on producing marijuana-containing, however alcohol-free drinks.
The be part of enterprise first moved into the Canadian market when it was authorized to take action, however worldwide growth was solely pure, and extra market ought to get added over time as hashish will get legalized in an increasing number of international locations and states. Resulting from Molson Coors’ present world gross sales networks it’s probably that the enterprise between Molson Coors and Hydropothecary would be capable of seize important market share in abroad markets if the chance arises, e.g. when extra international locations in Europe or South America legalize marijuana/marijuana merchandise.
Molson Coors is buying and selling at a comparatively cheap valuation of simply 13 occasions 2022’s earnings, and traders receives a commission a dividend yield of two.1% at present costs.
The Greatest Marijuana Shares
The marijuana {industry} remains to be younger, which implies that each dangers and potential rewards are elevated.
Within the pure play house, Trulieve Hashish appears to be like cheap relative to different marijuana pure performs, whereas on the similar time, it’s working with above-average profitability, which reduces monetary dangers to some extent. Authorized and regulatory dangers stay, after all.
Marijuana pure play corporations are largely not worthwhile and don’t pay dividends. Extra risk-averse traders with a purpose of regular earnings technology ought to somewhat take a look at corporations with some oblique marijuana publicity.
This record consists of established corporations with lengthy and regular dividend progress data that shall be extra appropriate for a lot of traders in comparison with the higher-risk pure performs.
Amongst these shares with oblique publicity, there are a number of ones which are fairly to attractively priced and that provide an above-average dividend yield on prime of that. These corporations give traders the flexibility to profit from future progress alternatives within the marijuana {industry} with out taking over a number of danger.
Of those, Altria is our favourite oblique publicity marijuana inventory in Could 2022, due to its low valuation and robust whole return outlook, pushed by its excellent dividend yield of greater than 7%. Its marijuana publicity is just not as massive as that of pureplays, after all, however in case marijuana will get legalized on a federal degree within the US, Altria nonetheless could possibly be a significant beneficiary. The truth that it’s a Dividend Aristocrats that has raised the dividend like clockwork for a number of a long time can also be a extremely engaging trait for a lot of earnings traders.
Remaining Ideas
In relation to marijuana, there’s a clear pattern of decriminalization and outright legalization, for each medicinal and leisure functions, within the U.S. and throughout the globe. Because of this the potential marketplace for authorized marijuana continues to develop.
That stated, traders shouldn’t blindly leap into this {industry} based mostly solely in the marketplace potential. Most of the corporations on this {industry} are usually not worthwhile, and should by no means attain profitability. In consequence, investing in marijuana shares is fraught with danger. It isn’t assured that each one main marijuana corporations (a few of that are valued at a number of billion {dollars}) will develop into their valuations in an inexpensive period of time.
Traders ought to take a detailed take a look at all related knowledge factors earlier than making any choices, particularly in a higher-risk atmosphere such because the marijuana {industry}. Selecting lower-risk shares which permit for some oblique publicity to the {industry} could possibly be an opportune transfer for traders, particularly for people who need common and dependable dividend earnings from their inventory holdings.
Additional Studying
The next lists comprise many extra high-quality dividend shares:
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