By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Affected person readers, I’ve had a little bit of a debacle as we speak: a protracted and liquid repast (albeit scrumptious). I’ll start with the Covid charts, and ship extra quickly (however after 2:00). –lambert UPDATE All performed!
Fowl Music of the Day
Crested Satinbird, The Hole, Central, Papua New Guinea. Not fairly certain what I’m listening to, right here. I imply, I do know it’s a chicken….
Politics
“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick
“You may’t actually mud for vomit.” Nigel Tufnel, That is Spinal Faucet
Biden Administration
“Congress implies UFOs have non-human origins” [The Hill]. • Possibly we’ve came upon the place the lizard folks come from?
2022
* * * On that “threats to democracy” ballot, pushed by the sadly diminished Froomkin right here:
That is big: https://t.co/P9RSFtWIpG
Time for each newsroom chief to name a gathering and rethink every little thing: https://t.co/siBhTqeRj9 pic.twitter.com/UtAkAGWbrH— Dan Froomkin/PressWatchers.org (@froomkin) August 22, 2022
However:
So yeah, they break up the financial system into two questions as an alternative of the standard one. Add up “Value of residing” and “Jobs and the Financial system” and “the financial system is well the highest difficulty. Additionally no cross-tab on what number of involved by “threats to democracy” have been Trump voters… https://t.co/tUISVVzvC0 pic.twitter.com/sVyOXRrty0
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) August 23, 2022
“GOP Will Lose The Senate As a result of Of Unhealthy Candidates” [Down with Tyranny]. “A brand new PPP ballot of Wisconsin voters, launched yesterday, exhibits that 55% of Wisconsinites are involved (50% ‘very involved’) about Sen. Ron Johnson’s position in making an attempt to place pretend elector paperwork from Wisconsin and Michigan into the previous Vice President’s palms on January sixth, together with 57% of independents. Will it play into the November election? I feel so… and this sort of factor is hurting Republicans in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona… perhaps even Florida.”
2024
“Litigation by Leak: Authorities Officers Leak New Particulars on the Mar-a-Lago Raid Whereas Persevering with to Oppose Disclosures in Court docket” [Jonathan Turley]. “It’s litigation by leak the place the federal government prevents others (together with the goal) from seeing key representations made to the courtroom whereas releasing selective information to its personal benefit. It exhibits utter contempt for the courtroom and the general public. The query is whether or not the courtroom will be aware of this sequence of leaks. Most judges don’t wish to be performed so brazenly and publicly by authorities officers. Furthermore, the leaks ought to push Garland to reverse course as urged in a latest column and order substantive disclosures within the affidavit in mild of the federal government’s prior leaks.” • One may want for brand spanking new scripts, as an alternative of recycled ones.
“Trump Was Hoarding A few of America’s Most Delicate Secrets and techniques, Letter Reveals” [Rolling Stone]. ““Particular entry program” is a classification protocol particular to extremely delicate supplies and data that may embody every little thing from ‘black tasks’ to data relating to presidential communications and transportation safety. Entry to all these supplies is extraordinarily restricted, typically to only a choose group of high-level intelligence and army officers. Moreover, a few of these supplies might solely be saved and accessed in safe amenities.” • Nicely, if I have been gonna classify RussiaGate, I’d get out my “Particular Entry” rubber stamp and just do that. #JustSaying. In the meantime, as an antidote to the pearl-clutching, see the Federation of American Scientists on “What Is Overclassification.”
Republican Funhouse
Democrats en Déshabillé
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Underreported And Large Theocratic Motion Joins Forces With Michael Flynn And Roger Stone” [Jennifer Cohn, Bucks County Beacon]. “The [New Apostolic Reformation (NAR)] is a quickly accelerating and dangerously under-reported worldwide Christian authoritarian motion. It practices religion therapeutic and exorcism and promotes dominionism, a perception that Christians should take management of presidency, enterprise and tradition to ensure that Jesus to return to earth…. Longtime Trump advisor Roger Stone, who works with Flynn and has ties to violent extremists, embraces the NAR as effectively. He, Flynn, and different like-minded MAGA influencers and Christian authoritarian zealots are coming to Pennsylvania for the ultimate cease of the so-called “Reawaken America Tour” (RAT). The tour was based by Clay Clarkson, a far proper podcast host from Oklahoma, and is sponsored by NAR apostle Steve Strang by way of Charisma Information, considered one of Strang’s media corporations. A number of NAR apostles have spoken on the RAT. Spooky Nook Sports activities in Mannheim is internet hosting the occasion on October 21 and 22.” • Cohn is sound on voting machines, unsound on voting machines. and I’m not clear whether or not this text is (yet one more) instance of a yarn diagram with the yarn drawn too tight. The final administration the place the Christian Proper actually dominated was the Bush Administration, and it didn’t go effectively.
#COVID19
• Maskstravaganza:
My daughter is 10. Masked on daily basis for two yrs, lunches residence. Suppose the one child in grade not contaminated by covid at the very least as soon as (lecturers too). Friday, relative visited her at mother’s n did not disclose had been uncovered. At this time she was +ve at lunch n this night 39 C fever.
— Andrew Ewing (@AndrewEwing11) August 22, 2022
• Maskstravaganza:
My youngsters are at present recovering. Additionally acquired by way of 2 years of faculty masked.
Caught it at summer season camp when a mother or father examined constructive and despatched their little one maskless to camp AND with out bothering to check her
— Kat Cha (@KatieCharette2) August 22, 2022
“The 5 Legal guidelines Of Human Stupidity And How To Be A ‘Non-Silly’ Investor” [Seeking Alpha (Karl)]. • Since that is the stupidest timeline, these legal guidelines could also be of curiosity:
• Legislation 1: At all times and inevitably everybody underestimates the variety of silly people in circulation.
• Legislation 2: The chance {that a} sure individual be silly is impartial of some other attribute of that individual.
• Legislation 3. A silly individual is an individual who causes losses to a different individual or to a bunch of individuals whereas himself deriving no acquire and even presumably incurring losses.
• Legislation 4: Non-stupid folks all the time underestimate the damaging energy of silly people. Particularly non-stupid folks continually overlook that always and locations and below any circumstances to deal and/or affiliate with silly folks all the time seems to be a pricey mistake.
• Legislation 5: A silly individual is essentially the most harmful kind of individual.
Amusing, and I’m certain many examples of those Legal guidelines in operation will be discovered. I don’t see, nevertheless, how these Legal guidelines can provide an account of how silly folks attain positions of actual energy, a subject of concern to many.
“Anthony Fauci’s Retirement Marks the Finish of an Period” [Gregg Gonsalves, New York Times]. Gonsalves is rather a lot kinder than I’d be, maybe giving respect to an historical and formidable adversary. So I gained’t pull out the hagiography. However these two passages caught my eye: “Because the Yale historian Frank Snowden has famous, from the center of the twentieth century till the arrival of AIDS — throughout what he referred to as ‘an age of ‘ — scientists had largely declared mission completed when it comes to the battle towards infectious illnesses…. If the age of Dr. Fauci was one through which we seemed ahead to progress, even when all the time piecemeal, the present period is the age of ‘We now have the instruments.’ It’s a distinct new pessimism of spirit, cynicism of the need, born of the of some physicians however principally of the political calculations of others that doing extra on this pandemic is untenable. The sound you hear is the thud of resignation within the face of the struggling of so many over the previous two and a half years and a summer season through which we add a whole bunch to the useless on daily basis in america.” • I’m questioning if “hubris” offers a greater account of the Covid debacle than stupidity, particularly for the PMC. Wikipedia (sorry) has an attention-grabbing passage: “In historical Athens, hubris was outlined as using violence to disgrace the sufferer (this sense of hubris may additionally characterize rape). Aristotle outlined hubris as shaming the sufferer, not due to something that occurred to the committer or may occur to the committer, however merely for that committer’s personal gratification.” Shaming mask-wearers, for instance, may match into this framework. Hubris, although, like stupidity, is a attribute of what Bertie Wooster’s Jeeves referred to as “the psychology of the person,” so once more, in all probability not a sufficiently highly effective rationalization.
• ”What have been the historic causes for the resistance to recognizing airborne transmission in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic?” [Indoor Air (Sub-Boreal)]. From the Sensible Implications part of the Summary: “Because the early twentieth century, there was resistance to just accept that illnesses transmit by way of the air, which was significantly damaging in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. A key purpose for this resistance lies within the historical past of the scientific understanding of illness transmission: Transmission by way of the air was thought dominant throughout most of human historical past, however the pendulum swung too far within the early twentieth century. For many years, no vital illness was considered airborne. By clarifying this historical past and the errors rooted in it that also persist, we hope to facilitate progress on this discipline sooner or later.” • Nicely value a learn, since that is open entry (the authors, together with Jimenez, Marr, and Tufecki, have already put ahead this thesis in different venues. However you’ve acquired to hammer, hammer, hammer on the proponents of the outdated paradigm — “droplet goons” — till they shift their mindset or their funerals are introduced.
• “Suppose the CDC F–ked up Covid-19? Monkeypox and Polio Aren’t Going Any Higher” [Rolling Stone]. “The primary massive failure got here in March 2020. Covid was spreading quickly throughout the globe and, with no vaccines or confirmed therapies to stop or deal with the illness, international locations had no alternative however to lock down their populations and shut down their economies. What the world wanted most at that second was correct data. That meant testing. Whereas the World Well being Group in Geneva moved swiftly to ship check kits to poorer international locations and wealthier international locations resembling China and South Korea rapidly expanded their very own manufacturing of assessments, america fell far behind. It was the CDC’s fault. The company had designed a PCR check equipment that it supposed to supply to state and native well being departments. However the equipment included a defective reagent, making it unusable usually. Worse, the . So for a crucial few weeks early within the pandemic, america was at the hours of darkness. Sure, Covid was spreading — that a lot was evident from all of the folks falling sick. However the CDC and state and native authorities couldn’t precisely monitor the virus’s transmission or tally up the overall variety of infections.” • NC readers have been capable of comply with this debacle in actual time. I’ve all the time centered on the CDC’s check equipment omnishambles, however Mind Belief member GM factors out that the “sabotage” of the efforts of state and native labs to develop their very own assessments can also be horrifying. I’m struggling to give you an instance of a authorities division on this unhealthy form that has additionally been efficiently reformed. Wouldn’t or not it’s easier and safer to burn it to the bottom?
If you happen to missed it, right here’s a submit on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) think about most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we’ve got.
Case Rely
Case rely for america:
Fairly a drop. However look forward to the regional tales…
Circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the nominal case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~101,000. At this time, it’s ~81,600 and 81,600 * 6 = a Biden line at 489,600 per day. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so each day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. If you happen to have a look at the Fauci line, you will notice that regardless of the bleating and yammering about Covid being “over,” we’ve got solely only in the near past reached the (nominal) case stage of November 1, 2021, and we’re very removed from that of July 1, 2021. And the true stage is far worse.
Regional case rely for 4 weeks:
Seems to be like there was a knowledge difficulty someplace within the Midwest.
The South:
We’re going to need to stay with that ridiculous Florida curve for per week, ffs.
The South (minus Texas and Florida):
The West:
One other drop. No plateau.
• ”Google’s Covid Outbreak Is At the moment The Largest Of Any Employer In Los Angeles” [Deadline]. Los Angeles, you say. “The variety of Covid infections amongst Los Angeles-area Google staff almost doubled over the weekend, in response to the rely on the county’s official Covid office outbreak website. On Friday, Deadline reported that the tech big’s trendy Silicon Seashore campus in Venice had recorded 145 infections. This morning, the L.A. County Public Well being dashboard confirmed one other 135 newly-tallied circumstances on the firm’s huge Playa Vista complicated. (There have been one other one other 15 infections listed Friday for the Venice campus that now not seem as we speak.) Mixed, these 280 infections represent the most important present tally for any employer within the county. At LAX, 274 TSA staff are listed contaminated. Likewise 234 American Airways staff. These entities, nevertheless, aren’t solely consumer-facing, however doubtless take care of the most important quantity of foot site visitors within the county. Google has 2,000 staff in Los Angeles, in response to reporting by the Los Angeles Enterprise Journal final 12 months. If that’s correct, it will imply that 14% of the corporate’s workforce has been hit not too long ago.” • Nice information on LAX, too. I hope anyone touring by way of LAX has their throat and nostril sprays, is masked up, and avoids crowds (and particularly crowded restrooms) within the terminal.
• “Apple drops masks necessities for many of its company staff” [The Verge]. “Apple is dropping its masks mandates for company staff at ‘most places,’ in response to an inner electronic mail from the COVID-19 response crew, obtained by The Verge. ‘Don’t hesitate to proceed carrying a face masks for those who really feel extra comfy doing so,’ the e-mail reads. ‘Additionally, please respect each particular person’s determination to put on a masks or not.’” • ”Please respect each particular person’s determination to take a dump within the pool or not.” “Please respect each particular person’s determination to smoke cigarettes or not.” And so forth.
Positivity
From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, August 21:
-1.3%.
Transmission
Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)
NOT UPDATED Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), August 19:
I suppose that if case counts are certainly stage, it’s doubtless there can be few speedy risers.
Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:
NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), August 19:
Flat calm on the hospital entrance. If you happen to’re CDC, and that’s all that issues to you — as a result of Lengthy Covid isn’t a factor, and all people who is admittedly sick can get to a hospital — you’re in all probability feeling good proper now.
NOTE: Fast Riser and Hospitalization knowledge are up to date Wednesdays and Fridays.
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. I seemed for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), August 6:
Full takeover by BA.5/BA.4. I’m wondering what’s coming subsequent?
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 30 (Nowcast off):
BA.5/BA.4 transferring alongside properly.
• “Omicron subvariants BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 are right here. How involved ought to California be?” [Los Angeles Times]. “[T]he BA.2.75 subvariant has attracted consideration for turning into dominant in India and outcompeting BA.5 there, in response to a tweet from Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Analysis Translational Institute in La Jolla. ‘We’re now seeing indicators it might additionally compete with BA.4.6 in Australia,’ Topol wrote. ‘Simply the truth that variants can outcompete BA.5 is of concern.’ And a preprint examine from scientists in China urged that BA.2.75 ‘might prevail’ following the present BA.5 wave. What this implies for California and the U.S. isn’t clear. There have been loads of variants which have ultimately fizzled out. And, as Topol wrote, the trajectory of a variant like BA.2.75 ‘might differ significantly between international locations.’”
Wastewater
Wastewater knowledge (CDC), August 19:
Not proud of the gray dots in California, or nearly no dots in Texas and Florida. We now have no verify on case numbers in crucial states.
For grins, August 16:
What I’m actually apprehensive about is a rise in gray dots (“no latest knowledge”). as a result of that may imply the trouble is being shut down or defunded.
Deaths
Demise fee (Our World in Information):
Lambert right here: Deaths additionally on a “excessive plateau.” If in actual fact the drop in circumstances is actual, as CDC appears to consider, we should always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.
Whole: 1,066,082 – 1,065,569 = 513 (513 * 365 = 187,245; as we speak’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, thought they will discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
• “New York State Led US Life-Expectancy Drop in 2020, CDC Says” [Bloomberg]. “Life expectancy in New York plummeted by three years in 2020, the largest decline amongst all states within the first 12 months of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention stated. Residents of the state are anticipated to stay to simply below 78, the Fifteenth-highest life expectancy within the nation and a steep drop from 2019, after they had the third-highest rating, the well being authority stated in state-level knowledge printed Tuesday.” • Hat tip to Andy Cuomo for his stellar work cleansing out the Lebensunwertes Leben in nursing properties.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of word as we speak.
“The Period of Financial Whiplash Is Simply Starting” [Bloomberg]. “How typically do you see employment in nonfarm companies develop by 4.3% over two consecutive quarters, at the same time as their manufacturing declined by 2.3%? How do you clarify why automotive sellers employed 21,000 extra staff in July than in April though gross sales of motor autos and elements have been roughly $9 billion decrease? What would you inform builders who began 34,000 fewer housing models in July than in April however employed 36,000 extra staff to do it?… ‘There’s measurement noise,’ Jason Furman from Harvard’s Kennedy College advised me. However ‘one thing very bizarre is happening within the underlying financial system.’ Even the usual noise that usually exhibits up within the knowledge appears stranger than ordinary. For example, GDP is, by definition, equal to gross home revenue. Any individual’s buy is another person’s sale. A modest hole typically emerges between readings of the 2 as a result of they’re measured in numerous methods. However lately the hole is a gaping chasm, wider than something we’ve got ever seen: Whereas GDP shrank 1.6% within the first quarter, GDI grew 1.8%.” • Possibly the Facilities for Illness took over financial knowledge and no person advised us?
At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 45 Impartial (earlier shut: 46 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 56 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 23 at 3:15 PM EDT.
The Gallery
If this have been Mnet, we’d see off-kilter cropping:
Claude Monet, The Crimson Kerchief, ca. 1868-1873 #museumarchive #clevelandartmuseum https://t.co/MKEIIlQtuf pic.twitter.com/M9fks1mo8R
— CMA: Fashionable European Portray and Sculpture (@cma_modeuropean) August 23, 2022
Zeitgeist Watch
Talking of the male gender:
Second man is so cool pic.twitter.com/p8fT8JTyYd
— Carl Beijer (@CarlBeijer) August 23, 2022
Guillotine Watch
“Tensions fly excessive in East Hampton airport drama” [Financial Times]. “Native companies don’t need to stymie the spending of literal excessive flyers, whereas summer season folks don’t admire the relentless chopping of elevator blades over their seaside properties.” Laborious to select a facet, right here. Extra: ‘Eighty per cent of the city needs the airport to remain open, with restrictions on issues like schedules,’ says Andy Sabin, a pro-airport Hamptons resident and plaintiff in one of many lawsuits towards the city [which wants to privatize the airport to control the sound]. However we’ve got the wackadoos out right here. If you happen to don’t like wealthy folks, go to Venezuela or Cuba and also you don’t have to fret about it any extra.’” • Possibly Venezuela or Cuba will come right here. As Mark Blythe says: “The Hamptons aren’t a defensible place.”
Class Warfare
Important staff:
A photograph that was initially captured in 1932, remake by Chicago iron staff. pic.twitter.com/cC6EFnqoJ7
— World Of Historical past (@UmarBzv) August 23, 2022
Not proven, then or now: Directors shoving them off.
Information of the Wired
“Every part’s Going In response to Plan” (since drumlin woodchuckles requested):
(That is truly a canopy of a Russian punk rock authentic; I used to be launched to each by (the good) Mark Ames. I just like the Large Assault model higher (their sound, plus their natty jackets and unemphatic multiraciality).
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