2:00PM Water Cooler 6/21/2022 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Track of the Day

Pleasant Bush Warbler, Sabah, Malaysia. With forest sounds and a helicopter (?).

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

“The January 6 Hearings Are Feckless Political Theater” [Peter Daou]. “The committee, which most Republicans boycotted, employed James Goldston, a documentary producer and former president of ABC Information, to show the hearings into partaking tv with slick packaging and an array of pithy soundbites. The result’s, and was meant to be, politics as actuality tv, a media diversion that may change nothing within the dismal American panorama. What ought to have been a severe bipartisan inquiry into an array of constitutional violations by the Trump administration has been become a prime-time marketing campaign business for a Democratic Social gathering working on fumes. The epistemology of tv is full.”

How precisely would a coup have occurred? A thread:

Each of those are imo fairly fairly rickety bridges, and he additionally has to maintain the enterprise group, most of whom are faculty educated, in his pocket. It’s actually fast and simple, if presumably costly, to make Trump a very dangerous guess economically.

— Blk Id Extremist Stan Account 👁 (@csilverandgold) June 19, 2022

Did I not get the memo on the “actual concept”?

“Regardless of Rising Proof, a Prosecution of Trump Would Face Challenges” [New York Times]. “What occurred on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Trump wrote [see below on Trump’s statement], stemmed from an effort by Individuals ‘to carry their elected officers accountable for the apparent indicators of prison exercise all through the election.’ His assertion, whereas unfounded, carried a selected significance given the intensifying deal with whether or not he might face prison prices. If the Justice Division had been to convey a case towards him, prosecutors would face the problem of displaying that he knew — or ought to have identified — that his place was based mostly on assertions about widespread election fraud that had been false or that his try to dam the congressional certification of the end result was unlawful.”

* * *

Sorry I missed Trump’s assertion final week:

“STATEMENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP” (PDF) [Donald Trump]. Missed this when it got here out. “The separation of powers is designed to be sure that no officers turn out to be dictators by granting the authority to make legal guidelines with the legislature and execute legal guidelines with the manager department. Nobody workplace ought to have full energy. It have to be separated amongst totally different workplaces. In 2020, separation of powers went out the window. The state govt department, in each pink and blue states, determined to utterly ignore state legal guidelines, make up their very own guidelines, and execute them. In different phrases, they turned the little dictators our Structure was designed to forestall. They illegally inflated voter rolls, illegally allowed harvested and stuffed ballots, abused using mail-in ballots, bodily eliminated Republicans from counting services, abused the aged in nursing properties, bribed election officers with donations, stopped relying on Election Evening, gave Democrats three further days to reap ballots, and demanded that the American

individuals consider it was official.” • I’ve gotta say, that is the primary time I’ve seen the separation of powers utilized to States. I’m no constitutional scholar. Does it? Right here is the Day by day Mail’s commentary–

“Trump responds to second day of January 6 hearings with 12-page assertion the place he blasts ‘SHAM’ investigation and complains ‘MAGA witnesses had been interrogated behind closed doorways’” [Daily Mail]. “However Trump, in his response, depends on the partisan assist of his former adviser Peter Navarro and conservative activist Dinesh D’Souza to repeat his case that the election was stolen. Its footnotes are riddled with references to ‘2000 Mules,’ D’Souza’s a lot critcized documentary that claims to point out how dropboxes had been abused and the election was stolen from Trump.” • I nonetheless assume that if Trump had been in a position to rent non-cray cray lawyer, Dominion would nonetheless be interesting a judgement to disclose its proprietary supply code. So it goes.

“A Day After a Portrait of Pence in Hazard, Trump Assaults Him Once more” [New York Times]. “‘I by no means known as Mike Pence a wimp,’ stated Mr. Trump, whose daughter Ivanka was current for the decision and later advised her chief of workers that Mr. Trump had successfully known as Mr. Pence a coward, utilizing a vulgarity. Then, Mr. Trump went on to explain Mr. Pence as weak.’” • One of many causes the Bolsheviks might seize the Winter Palace is that the Bolsheviks had organized the Czar’s machine-gun battalion in St. Petersburg. One way or the other Trujp utilizing dangerous phrases is being equated to this. (Final I checked, the Proud Boys weren’t packing, so….).

“The 22 wildest strains from Donald Trump’s 12(!)-page assertion on the January 6 committee” [Chris Cilizza, CNN]. • Cilizza really does an excellent job on this, which is fairly scary. The final two strains:

21. “No person brings this up, however as President, I suffered years of vicious lies, scandals, and innuendo regarding a faux and contrived narrative of Russia, Russia, Russia.”

Enable me to cite from the Mueller Report: “(I)f we had confidence after a radical investigation of the information that the President clearly didn’t commit obstruction of justice, we’d so state,” reads the Mueller report. “Primarily based on the information and the relevant authorized requirements, we’re unable to succeed in that judgment. … Accordingly, whereas this report doesn’t conclude that the president dedicated against the law, it additionally doesn’t exonerate him.”

22. “That is merely an try and cease a person that’s main in each ballot, towards each Republicans and Democrats by vast margins, from working once more for the Presidency.”

So, is Trump saying he’s working for president once more in 2024? Large information! Yeah, this appears like an excellent place to finish.

Fascinating on level #22; I’m unsure anyone else caught that.

“Liz Cheney Is Profitable the January 6 Committee” [National Review]. “Congresswoman Cheney has been very efficient in relating the committee’s blistering case towards the previous president. Within the brief run, nonetheless, latest polls recommend an inverse correlation between the impression she has made on the nation at massive (favorable) and the impression she has made at dwelling in pink Wyoming, the place pro-Trumpers dominate GOP politics (not so favorable). There are two poles in GOP politics proper now: (a) the too-gradually eroding pro-Trump faction that punches above its weight in intraparty issues and (b) the preponderant however diffident “wouldn’t or not it’s good if he simply went away and allow us to battle at this time’s battles as an alternative of relitigating 2020” crowd. These camps go away no traction for a “virulently anti-Trump” different — it motivates the previous and, by holding Trump entrance and heart, irritates the latter. That being the case, there is no such thing as a abdomen for impeaching Trump but once more. It’s not that he doesn’t deserve it. It’s that every part has its second, and that second is previous. Right now’s prudent Republican place is that Trump is an actual downside however one that’s fading (although too slowly); within the meantime, GOP goals have to be: Hold the highlight on the faltering Biden administration and its ruinous woke-progressivism, wallop Democrats within the midterms, after which nominate somebody who can win a nationwide presidential election. The belief is that the cumulative impact of pursuing these goals will marginalize Trump.”

Biden Administration

“AARP launches advertisements in W. Va. urging Manchin to assist reconciliation invoice” [NBC]. “AARP, the advocacy group for Individuals over fifty, is launching new cable and broadcast TV advertisements in West Virginia urging centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., to assist a funds reconciliation invoice that features a main prescription drug financial savings coverage…. The latest Manchin-Schumer negotiations have been tight-lipped and the West Virginia Democrat, who scuttled the Home-passed Construct Again Higher Act, is dealing with conflicting pressures on putting a narrower reconciliation deal over tax and spending coverage that may bypass the filibuster. The brand new AARP advert marketing campaign is designed to push again on drug trade opposition to the financial savings coverage and goals to offer Manchin political cowl to assist the invoice.”

2022

* * *

NY: “How Many N.Y. Democrats Does It Take to Fill a Home Seat? Attempt 15.” [New York Times]. “Mr. de Blasio, who as soon as believed he may very well be elected president, has now set his sights decrease, aiming to symbolize a newly redrawn Home district in New York Metropolis. However he’s removed from alone. Others contesting the seat embrace a Levi Strauss inheritor who helped impeach Donald J. Trump; rising stars from the Metropolis Council and State Meeting; a Chinese language American activist concerned within the 1989 Tiananmen Sq. protests; and a pathbreaking liberal who was the youngest girl ever elected to Congress — 50 years in the past.There’s additionally a sitting congressman at the moment representing a suburban area, who solely just lately moved into the district. Precisely when, he couldn’t say. ‘Time is a blur,’ stated the congressman, Mondaire Jones, pivoting away from questions on his new residency, ‘whenever you’re preventing to finish gun violence in America.’”

2024

“Democrats Anticipate Joe Biden to Run in 2024. They’re Much less Certain If He Ought to.” [Wall Street Journal]. “The White Home has repeatedly stated that Mr. Biden, 79, the oldest president to be sworn into workplace, intends to run for re-election. An individual acquainted with the president’s advisers’ considering stated they’re planning on him working and that the personal conversations have matched the general public statements. The present dialogue is that an announcement would occur after the midterm elections, probably someday within the spring of 2023, this individual stated…. conversations with Democrats in Washington and in major states discovered most don’t see a greater or practical choice than the incumbent to high the 2024 ticket. Key Democrats additionally stated they doubted many top-tier candidates would attempt to push Vice President Kamala Harris apart if Mr. Biden selected to not run, and early polls recommend she would probably be the preliminary front-runner in such an occasion. However her personal ballot numbers aren’t higher than Mr. Biden’s, and Democrats have combined views of how robust she could be main a ticket. And a few famous the get together’s nomination fights in 2016 and 2020 included robust runs by liberal Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.), who has dominated out working towards Mr. Biden however not Ms. Harris. Hypothesis amongst Democrats has touched on different 2020 contenders—Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and present Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg—in addition to Biden infrastructure czar Mitch Landrieu and Govs. Phil Murphy of New Jersey and Gavin Newsom of California, who has been taking a extra assertive nationwide function in sparring with Republicans on points like abortion. However there is no such thing as a apparent individual whom get together leaders would see as the most effective choose if neither Mr. Biden nor Ms. Harris topped the ticket.” • All acquainted to NC readers. I believe we have to give Jesse Ventura a severe look. We’d must steadiness the ticket with someone who has extra Washington expertise, so I’m going with Ventura/Kissinger.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

RussiaGate

A lot of element on RussiaGate. “Lawfare rebellion” is nice framing, not least as a result of it underlines how a lot the imperial equipment is being deployed domestically:

the important thing interval in 2017 lawfare rebellion was from unlawful leak on Jan 10 that Steele file was utilized in Intel Group Evaluation to Mueller appointment on Might 17, punctuated by Comey’s Mar 20 announcement at Home Intel Cmte, sabotaging Trump admin https://t.co/PdufPfwfMk

— Stephen McIntyre (@ClimateAudit) June 16, 2022

Realignment and Legitimacy

Cf. Judges 12:6:

Final web page of the Texas GOP Platform adopted at this time at their conference says:

“We reject the licensed outcomes of the 2020 Presidential election, and we maintain that appearing President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the individuals of america.”

— Layla Moon 🇵🇸🥄🏳️‍⚧️ (@ScholarlySpoon) June 19, 2022

Cray cray? Or one thing extra?

Final web page of the Texas GOP Platform adopted at this time at their conference says:

“We reject the licensed outcomes of the 2020 Presidential election, and we maintain that appearing President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the individuals of america.”

— Layla Moon 🇵🇸🥄🏳️‍⚧️ (@ScholarlySpoon) June 19, 2022

#COVID19

I’m however a humble tape-watcher, and I’m perplexed in regards to the present state of play. Case information is displaying the fiddling-and-diddling habits attribute of a peak. Nevertheless, nothing I hear in anecdotal case information tells me there’s any reduction. Hospitalization information (trailing) is easing (and so the hospital-centric public well being institution most likely thinks Covid is completed). Positivity information (main) has been fiddling and diddling because it too does at peaks. Then once more, waste-water information (main) is barely downThe wild card is variants BA.4/5 (and I believed we had been purported to be giving names to those issues). All of the variant sources I’ve say BA.4/5 are up, however they differ as to how a lot and the place, and the information is 2 weeks behind (hat tip, CDC; who might have identified we’d want to trace variant information?). I’m reminded of the “stairstep” (see the Case rely chart beneath: I muttered about this on the time) that marked the Delta/Omicron transition, simply earlier than Omicron’s superb take-off. Maybe a BA.4/5 transition will exhibit the identical habits. OTOH, I may very well be projecting patterns into clouds.

• ”The Hole Partitions and Hidden Tunnels of Vancouver’s Storied Orpheum Theatre” [Monte Cristo Magazine].. “‘One of the up-to-date ventilating techniques on the continent was put in,’ notes former Orpheum supervisor Ivan Ackery in his memoirs. ‘Air was introduced from the surface and blown by means of a collection of water sprays or screens, heated to any desired diploma, then compelled by means of a system of ducts which distributed it to each a part of the constructing by means of tons of of small pipes which opened beneath the seats. , and with assistance from these large air-washers, clear, dust-free air of even temperature was ensured always.’” • In 1927….

• Maskstravaganza:

Should you missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) take into account most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we now have.

I can not discover a case rely chart that integrates regional and nationwide subtotals, so we’re that a lot stupider. I believed the New York Occasions had the nicest information presentationL

Case rely for america:

Kind of stage. Do not forget that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. Yesterday, the rely was 106,900. Right now, it’s 96,000, and 96,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 576000. At the least we now have affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

• Swiss cheese technique:

Or, we couldn’t emulate Japan in any respect, and let ‘er rip!

• How is it that the one media determine elevating questions on information is…. Zerlina Maxwell:

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker:

0.0%. (I’m leaving the company brand on as a slap to and test on the goons at CDC.)

NOT UPDATED Wastewater information from Biobot Analytics, June 15

• “Surveillance of omicron variants by means of wastewater epidemiology: Newest developments in environmental monitoring of pandemic” [Science of the Total Environment]. From the Summary: “WBE has been a monitoring system that can provide purposeful and inclusive real-time assessments of civic society in addition to environmental well being… This info will assist to enhance early detection methods, designing a prevention technique to cut back their unfold, an infection management and therapies, thus, strengthening our world preparedness to battle future epidemics.”

NOT UPDATED Variant information, regional (Biobot), June 1:

Hoo boy. Right here is Biobot from Might 25:

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), Might 28:

Variant information, nationwide (CDC), June 4:

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. June 4 is 2 weeks in the past, and given doubling habits, BA.4/5 are most likely starting to dominate!

• “Omicron sub-variants BA.4, BA.5 account for 21% of COVID variants in U.S. – CDC” [Reuters]. “The BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron are estimated to make up about 8.3% and 13.3% of the coronavirus variants in america as of June 11, the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) stated on Tuesday.” • Estimated! Estimated! That’s CDC’s effing mannequin, and we all know how a lot to belief their fashions! Why within the identify of all that’s holy, and two years into the pandemic, aren’t we measuring?

From CDC Group Profile Studies (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:

Establishment.

The earlier launch:

NOTE I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

West Coast, and Midwest are all pink. Seeing some orange (“substantial”) on the East Coast. Nice Plains speckled with yellow and blue. Vermont reverts from blue to orange.

Hospitalization (CDC Group Profile):

Very risky.

Loss of life price (Our World in Knowledge):

Whole: 1,038,385 1,037,928. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at this time.

Tech:

Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 22 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 14 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 17 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jun 21 at 1:50 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

Bare Capitalism Cooking Group™

No:

“I’d like that will help you, Tom, in any method I can….”

Video games

“Gaming’s Newest ‘AI’ Girl Recycles The Standard Sexist Tropes” [Kotaku]. “Once I first noticed Ana, PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds writer Krafton’s try and put a face on its synthetic ‘digital human’ expertise, I used to be disenchanted to see that this supposed Internet 3.0 innovation was actually simply one other fairly, pale lady. She’s airbrushed, however nonetheless tangible. She’s biting her tongue, you. And I concern she exists solely to be checked out, and never a lot else. Krafton launched its first photographs of Ana on June 15. We bought two tight close-ups of a vaguely East Asian girl with all the anticipated egirl accoutrements, dyed hair and adventurous ear piercings. Ana, who was created with Unreal Engine, has a lightning bolt tattooed on her finger. It’s clearly seen when she places her pinky as much as her lips to stare at you with clear, amorous intent.” • Gad.

Class Warfare

“Natalia Molina, “A Place on the Nayarit: How a Mexican Restaurant Nourished a Group” (U California Press, 2022)” (podcast) [New Books Network]. ” Via deep analysis and vivid storytelling, Molina follows restaurant employees from the kitchen and the entrance of the home throughout borders and thru the many years. These individuals’s tales illuminate the various aspects of the immigrant expertise: immigrants’ complicated networks of household and group and the small however important pleasures of day by day life, in addition to cross-currents of gender and sexuality and pressures of racism and segregation. The Nayarit was an area landmark, common with each Hollywood stars and restaurant employees from throughout the town and beloved for its contemporary, historically ready Mexican meals. However as Molina argues, it was additionally, and most significantly, a spot the place ethnic Mexicans and different Latinx L.A. residents might step into the fullness of their lives, nourishing themselves and each other. A Place on the Nayarit is a stirring exploration of how racialized minorities create a way of belonging. It’ll resonate with anybody who has felt like an outsider and had a particular place the place they felt like an insider.”

Information of the Wired

I’ll say he was “like”:

Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From JT McPhee:

JT McPhee writes: “Unsure what that is.”

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Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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