By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Music of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Bay Creek Nature Protect (gated group, restricted entry), Northampton, Virginia, United States. Plus a mourning dove.
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
- At the moment’s RCP polling: Kamala closing, however Trump holds.
- Election prediction round-up .
- Boeing employees signal contract, Information Guild tech employees on strike at NYT.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW At the moment’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: There were some changes, so one last time. If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that although the Blue Wall is now Kamala’s, her surge has been arrested. Recall, however, that the polls lag: Big Mo is fickle! Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Our Final 2024 Ratings” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “We mentioned a few weeks ago that we misplaced our Crystal Ball. As an update, we regret to say that we still have not found it. So no final ratings this year. Have fun on Tuesday!… OK, fine, we’ll give it a try. We are not going to try to concoct some grand theory as to why one candidate may be favored in this election. We’ve tried them all out, and we don’t find anything that is convincing—if we did, we would have said so by now. We will leave it to the Wednesday morning quarterbacks—or is it Thursday or Friday?—to tell us how clear it was that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win. These things seem obvious in hindsight, but the outcome sure doesn’t seem obvious to us now. The polls, collectively, aren’t really providing a clear signal—and, even if they were, we’d likely be suspicious of that signal, given polling challenges in the last two presidential elections. Let’s just get to the 7 key states. What follows is based on off-record conversations with contacts, our sense of the polling picture, past history, and more.” Then follows their analysis of the swing states (and Selzer; in essence, she has form and could be directionally correct, and there are other tremors in the Midwest, especially Kansas). Here is their map:
270toWin’s non-call, the consensus view:
They do, however, have a handy interactive combinations tool to play with the swing states.
“FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [FiveThirtyEight]. “538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a 50 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. Our model gives Trump a 49 out of 100 chance. The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race but also moved in Harris’s direction Monday. A close race in the polls, though, does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.”
Allan Lichtman once more:
He has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 Presidential elections & despite this #election2024 being traditionally tight @AllanLichtman stands firmly by his prediction that #KamalaHarris will win. He explains why: pic.twitter.com/dTHckj3Pol
— Rosemary Church (@rosemaryCNN) November 4, 2024
“How the Election May Unfold: 4 Eventualities” [Nate Cohn, New York Times]. “Listed here are 4 eventualities for what might occur on this election. They’re all believable — so believable that every might sound apparent in hindsight. [1] If Kamala Harris wins huge, we must always have seen it coming all alongside. Democrats have gained election after election since Mr. Trump’s upset victory in 2016. [2] In as we speak’s polarized nation, what may very well be much less shocking than a more-or-less repeat of the 2020 election: yet one more shut election throughout the battleground states, with few swings from 4 years in the past? [3] But the polls counsel that the 2024 election would possibly look extra just like the 2022 midterms than the 2020 race: an election the place completely different states, areas and demographic teams swing considerably, however in numerous instructions. [4] If Mr. Trump wins huge, we must always have seen it coming all alongside. On paper, this election ought to be a Republican victory.” • From the enthusiastic tone, Cohn endorses [1]. However there’s this cautionary prose in [4]: “On this situation, Ms. Harris’s obvious power amongst white and older voters, or her resilience within the Midwestern battlegrounds, is nothing greater than one other polling mirage — in precisely the identical states the place the polls obtained it mistaken 4 and eight years in the past. Add in Mr. Trump’s positive aspects amongst younger, Black and Hispanic voters and you find yourself with a decisive victory for him. It could mark the start of a brand new period of politics.”
“Why prediction markets swung towards Harris earlier than Election Day” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s probabilities of recapturing the White Home fell sharply over the weekend throughout prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Then they climbed again up. Volatility like this underlines why utilizing betting markets to gauge the standing of the presidential race is difficult. And but, prediction and betting markets have emerged this 12 months as a robust pressure in shaping public opinion — and marketing campaign messaging — concerning the horse race. Prediction markets are misnamed. They’re betting traces meant to supply a worth to wager on at a given second in time — not essentially to forecast whether or not the result is possible.” • And they are often gamed.
* * * Prognostication:
Viral child hippo Moo Deng predicts Trump will win by consuming cake with native spelling of Donald Trump’s title written on high pic.twitter.com/4yOwhqtoRG
— New York Publish (@nypost) November 4, 2024
* * * Election map (1):
Election Touchscreen Map Takes Deeper Look Inside Key Swing Voter | Onion Information Community
ONN political analyst Jason Copeland breaks down the newest presidential polling traits occurring inside Pennsylvania resident Nick Camden. pic.twitter.com/F3LapdLCHC
— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 4, 2024
Election map (2):
My ultimate prediction map for the election pic.twitter.com/REhD0W82ZE
— greg (@greg16676935420) November 4, 2024
Election map (3):
Early predictions of tonight’s election are in and it’s a landslide victory for the oligarchs. pic.twitter.com/ZPTSYxuBMS
— Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) November 5, 2024
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
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Keep protected on the market!
Transmission: Covid
“SARS-CoV-2 variants induce elevated inflammatory gene expression however diminished interferon responses and heme synthesis as in contrast with wild kind strains” [Nature]. From the Abtract: “We analysed transcriptional signatures of COVID-19 sufferers evaluating these contaminated with wildtype (wt), alpha, delta or omicron strains in search of insights into an infection in Asymptomatic circumstances….
Stats Watch
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US elevated to 58.9 in October 2024, the very best since September 2022, in comparison with 58.6 within the earlier month, and pointing to a stable development within the US logistics sector. The general index has now elevated for eleven consecutive months, offering sturdy proof that the logistics business is again on stable footing.” • And with it, the warehouses in central Pennsylvania?
Banks: “The FDIC has unintentionally launched an inventory of firms it bailed out for billions within the Silicon Valley Financial institution collapse” [Fortune]. “When federal regulators stepped in to backstop all of Silicon Valley Financial institution’s deposits, they saved 1000’s of small tech startups and prevented what might have been a catastrophic blow to a sector that relied closely on the lender. However the choice to ensure all accounts above the $250,000 federal deposit insurance coverage restrict additionally helped larger firms that have been in no actual hazard. Sequoia Capital, the world’s most outstanding venture-capital agency, obtained coated the $1 billion it had with the lender. Kanzhun Ltd., a Beijing-based tech firm that runs cellular recruiting app Boss Zhipin, acquired a backstop for greater than $900 million. ”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Workers Ratify Contract With 43.65 Percent Wage Increase Over 4 Years” [Truthout]. “IAM’s international president, Brian Bryant, called the contract ‘a new standard in the aerospace industry — one that sends a clear statement that aerospace jobs must be middle-class careers in which workers can thrive.’ ‘Workers in the aerospace industry, led by the IAM — the most powerful aerospace union in the world — will not settle for anything less than the respect and family-sustaining wages and benefits they need and deserve,’ said Bryant. ‘This agreement reflects the positive results of workers sticking together, participating in workplace democracy, and demonstrating solidarity with each other and with the community during a necessary and effective strike.’” • But–
Manufacturing: “Boeing factory strike ends as workers vote to accept contract” [Associated Press]. Reactions were mixed even among union members who voted to accept the contract. Although she voted ‘yes,’ Seattle-based calibration specialist Eep Bolaño said the outcome was ‘most certainly not a victory.’ Bolaño said she and her fellow workers made a wise but infuriating choice to accept the offer. ‘We were threatened by a company that was crippled, dying, bleeding on the ground, and us as one of the biggest unions in the country couldn’t even extract two-thirds of our demands from them. This is humiliating,’ she said. For other workers like William Gardiner, a lab lead in calibration services, the revised offer was a cause for celebration. ‘I’m extremely pumped over this vote,’ said Gardiner, who has worked for Boeing for 13 years. ‘We didn’t fix everything — that’s OK. Overall, it’s a very positive contract.’”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Stock Is Falling. Don’t Blame the Union, Workers Voted to End the Strike” [Barron’s]. Thanks, Barron’s. “Wages and benefit increases will raise Boeing’s costs between $1 billion and $2 billion a year by the end of the contract, according to Wall Street estimates. That will amount to about 2% of Boeing’s total costs later in the decade, when plane production has recovered from a decline in recent years.” 2%. More: “While a new jet could help restore balance between Boeing and Airbus, it won’t be cheap. New plane programs can cost as much as $30 billion to develop, according to BofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein. That spending shows up in higher spending on research and development over many years.”
Manufacturing: “Godfather Of Aircraft Leasing Outlines Boeing’s Next Steps” [Airline Ratings]. “What is the most likely aircraft that will ultimately emerge, and how close are we? It will probably be a large single-aisle or maybe a mini twin-aisle. But this is not a good time to launch a new narrowbody, we are not pushing it at the moment, they have to get their house in order. The A320 family is now almost 35 years old, and the 737-200 was certified in December 1968, that’s a 56-year-old design. So it is time for some new stuff, but nobody has the courage or the money to do it. The technology is probably available, but the economics of that new technology is not favourable for the airlines. The maintenance costs now outweigh the fuel savings, that’s not a good equation. Our customers rather want to stabilize their existing new technology aircraft like Boeing’s 737MAXs/787s or Airbus’s A350s/A320neos, they want to see those things running reliably.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •
Our Famously Free Press
Not quite sure where to file this, since it’s certainly not a plant. From Wukchumni:
Wukchumni writes: “Newspaper Rock, Utah.”
Gallery
Bare trees?
Birch Forest, 1903 #artbots #klimt pic.twitter.com/kV2gYQubrc
— Gustav Klimt (@artistgklimt) November 3, 2024
Class Warfare
“New York Instances tech employee strike stretches into Election Day” [FOX]. “The New York Times woke up to Election Day with hundreds of its tech staffers still on strike on the most important news day of the year. ‘We are back out on the picket line today,’ the Times Tech Guild wrote on X. ‘We know this is a hard day to be on strike for our members but we want to be clear: We are here because of the decisions of @NYTimes management.’” • Commentary:
As you may have read, our colleagues in the Tech Guild are on strike. While they don’t play a role in the model itself, they built and maintain the infrastructure that feeds us data and lets us publish on the internet
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2024
The needle is silly….
“Perplexity CEO presents AI firm’s companies to switch putting NYT employees” [TechCrunch]. • Oh.
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired as we speak.
Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:
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