By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Sure, I’ll do an election evening reside weblog tomorrow! –lambert
Hen Tune of the Day
Returning to the Northern Mockingbirds. Love the binomial: Mimus polyglottos.
Northern Mockingbird, 71 Maltby Highway East, Wellington, Ontario, Canada. “Superb mimicking skills of varied songbirds; singing persistently from totally different perches (high of a tree or a bush, wire); singing whereas in flight as effectively; shifting from one perch to a different fairly steadily; very vocal and lively, chasing different birds away from its territory esp American Robins; wonderful mimicking skills; nice singer though I’m unsure if I would love it each morning subsequent to my bed room window. So intense :).”
In Case You May Miss…
- Right this moment’s RCP polling: Kamala closing.
- Dueling Op-Eds on Kamala v. Trump.
- Boeing vote at present.
- Information Guild tech staff strike at NYT on election day.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW Right this moment’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that Kamala is closing (and the Blue Wall is hers again). Recall also that the polls lag: If Big Mo is on Kamala’s site, she could ahead by now. Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Column: The case against Donald Trump is clear. Here’s the case for Kamala Harris” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. Here are six reasons Harris would be a better president:.. She has promised to seek consensus and compromise, two words Trump has rarely uttered. We could use a dose of both…. Harris’ economic policies are less likely to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s…. Harris has offered serious proposals to address three pressing problems: housing, childcare and elder care…. Harris says U.S. foreign policy should be based on strong alliances with other democracies, not cynical partnerships with tyrants like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping… And, of course, she that women can make decisions about abortion without state governments endangering their lives.” • “Would work to ensure” = “fight for” = “won’t get the job done,” as Democrats have failed to do on Roe for a generation. McManus isn’t dumb; the Democrats could abolish the filibuster and codify Roe when the Congress opens and the Senate sets its rules. Did Doyle get a commitment from Kamala on this? Or even ask the question? No. So it won’t get done.
* * * Kamala (D): History rhymes:
So, they narcissistically replaced “we” with “she?”
This is literally “it’s her turn.” https://t.co/mrIm6AFHGK
— Briahna Joy Gray (@briebriejoy) November 4, 2024
2008 – 2024 is just not a fast decay, in historic phrases.
Kamala (D): “35 12 months nationwide safety skilled”:
The lady stricken with TDS is none aside from Patti Morrissey, a former senior DoD and ODNI official. Sadly this illness is pervasive inside the nationwide safety equipment, and that degrades belief in these vital authorities establishments. https://t.co/wDtwWfFrqc
— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) November 3, 2024
Now a authorities contractor (naturally). ODNI is without doubt one of the organs of state safety concerned in election validation. I ponder who many levels of separation between Morrissey, Jessica Brandt at ODNI’s Overseas Malign Affect Heart, and DHS’s Jen Easterly at CISA. Not very many, I might wager. Maybe they go to the identical yoga class, or some such.
* * *
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Social Norming
I genuinely don’t perceive how we cannot defend our youngsters. What’s going on right here?
It’s like a zombie film concerning the collapse of civilization.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing unit Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US fell by 0.5% from the earlier month to $584.2 billion in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.8% decline in August and loosely consistent with market expectations of a 0.4% drop.”
Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike vote; the United Airlines example” [Air Insight]. “The pause in MAX deliveries disrupted United’s network planning. Airlines sell seats 360 days out, so planning is essential, and delivery disruptions cause chaos. It is a delicate balance, and we see time and again the industry loses balance quickly. It always recovers, but that recovery invariably means people are stuck somewhere they don’t want to be, with airlines bleeding money as they recover.” • So the IAM still has some leverage beyond the cash flow problem Wall Street solved for Boeing.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Had a Big Week. This One Is Even Bigger” [Barron’s]. “The new labor contract offer increases base wages by about $1.1 billion annually over the life of the contract, according to Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.” That’s all? More: “Management will have to offset increases with higher productivity. Boeing recently announced it would lay off some 17,000 people which will help offset cost increases.” • But not executive bonuses or stock buybacks. Naturally.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •
Gallery
Millet is great. Notice his attempt to catch work (“transfer of energy by a force acting on an object as it is displaced”) in paint, especially with the middle figure’s raised arm. (John Berger spotted the same thing with a potato in mid-air, being dropped into a furrow by a peasant.)
The Washerwomen pic.twitter.com/rbJjkoraSY
— Jean-Francois Millet (@artistmillet) October 24, 2024
I want there have been an Impressionist Millet (or a Cubist Millet) however AFAIK there may be not.
Permaculture
“Utilizing Leaves For Insulation Round My Studio” [Full Moon Fiber Art]. “I began yesterday and completed raking leaves at present. I stuffed up 16 forty gallons baggage with leaves and put them on three sides of my studio. The one facet with out leaves is the south going through the place the inspiration is so low it’s hardly seen…. And it’s an amazing use of the leaves. Within the spring I’ll burn them in my equinox bon hearth. The baggage are heavy obligation, so I’ll save those that survive the winter and use them once more subsequent 12 months.” • I’ve finished this and it actually works; transformed the coldest room in the home to the warmest. I recycle the leaves for mulch. The leaves should be dry. Most likely not too late for these of you in chilly climates!
Class Warfare
“New York Occasions Tech Employees Go on Strike on Eve of 2024 Election, Alleging Unfair Labor Practices” [Variety]. “The Occasions Tech Guild represents greater than 600 engineers, knowledge managers, designers, software program builders and tech personnel who develop and run the techniques that energy the paper’s web site and apps. If the strike continues into Tuesday, it is going to be the primary to coincide with a presidential election within the NewsGuild because the 1964 Detroit newspaper strike, in line with the union…. Not one of the Occasions’ writers or editors who’re masking the elections are instantly concerned within the Occasions Tech Guild strike. A spokesperson for the Occasions mentioned the corporate has ‘sturdy plans in place to make sure that we’re in a position to fulfill our mission and serve our readers.’” • IOW, scabs.
“Assist Placing New York Occasions Tech Employees by Breaking Your Wordle Streak” [Gizmodo]. “The New York Occasions’s software program engineers are on strike proper now they usually have a easy request for readers: don’t play Wordle or the crossword puzzle this week. The Occasions Tech Guild represents greater than 600 tech staff who keep The Occasions’ digital new empire. The New York Occasions is a storied information group nevertheless it’s additionally a tech firm. It has thrived when so many different information shops have failed, partially, as a result of its pivot to digital was sensible and sturdy. Video games like Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, and the Crossword drive enormous numbers to the Occasions. The NYT Cooking App is beloved by many and brings in quite a lot of income. However all that tech requires a wealth of backend help. In 2022, the Occasions’ tech staff unionized they usually’ve been negotiating with administration ever since. They signaled again in September that they have been ready to strike and would do it round election day. In accordance with a press release from the Guild, the present ache factors between it and administration are: return to workplace mandates, limits on subcontracting, pay and fairness, and “simply trigger” job protections. Employees need a provision of their contract that will guarantee staff are solely terminated for misconduct or related causes. ‘We now have been sounding the alarm for weeks and cleared our schedules to get this contract finished earlier than the election week deadline,’ Susan DeCarava, the president of The NewsGuild of New York mentioned in a press release. ‘As staff and subscribers, we’re disheartened that the Occasions is keen to gamble with its election protection to keep away from agreeing to a good and simply contract. We stay able to cut price and stay up for reaching an settlement our members at Occasions Tech Guild will ratify.’ Placing the day earlier than the election is a calculated transfer designed to place most stress on the paper at a time when its readership is spiking. The vaunted ‘election needle’ is a staple of the Occasions’ protection and it doesn’t run with out the help of back-end tech staff.”
“Diddy makes shock try and silence grand jury witness who made bombshell claims about rapper’s ‘freak-off’ events” [Daily Mail]. “Attorneys for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs have made a stunning try and silence a grand jury witness who has made bombshell claims concerning the rapper’s so-called ‘freak-off’ events. Legal professionals Marc Agnifilo and Tony Geragos submitted a letter to the federal decide overseeing the hip hop mogul’s intercourse trafficking and racketeering case, asking him to expedite their movement for a gag order on witnesses, citing a ‘deluge of improper pretrial publicity,’ ABC Information stories. It says the statements made by sure people are ‘undermining Mr. Combs’ proper to a good trial and the integrity of the grand jury proceedings.’ The attorneys hit out particularly at Combs’ former buddy, Courtney Burgess, who has claimed in a number of interviews he has seen movies of main celebrities being ‘victimized’ at Diddy’s infamous ‘freak-off’ events.” • I don’t care about “celebrities.” How about executives or politicians? Individuals with actual energy?
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired at present.
Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Wukchumni:
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