2:00PM Water Cooler 10/30/2024 | naked capitalism

Countdown!

Lambert here: Tiny margins, but all red. If I were running the Kamala campaign, I’d want to see some blue. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

“What time will we get exit polls for the US election?” [The Telegraph]. “The embargo period for exit polls will end at 5pm ET on polling day, after which news organisations are allowed to begin reporting results from individual states. However, at this point they are not permitted to project a winner while voting is still taking place. Exit polls will only be announced in states where the margins are large enough and they will not be used in the battleground states to project whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have won. Instead, statisticians will use a combination of the exit poll, actual declared votes and other data to forecast a winner. Along with establishing how respondents voted, the exit poll also questions voters on their demographics and what motivated their decision. If one candidate has a significant lead over the other, then the result may be clear within a matter of hours. However, a fine margin of victory will mean delays in how long it will take for experts to declare whether Ms Harris or Trump has come out on top. Previous contests have taken days or even weeks to be called.” • Exciting!

“US election exit polls: Process and timing for results” [RBC-Ukraine]. “On Election Day, over 3,000 Edison Research employees will be stationed at polling places across the US, sending data to the central team office. They will work alongside several hundred phone operators to promptly gather and process survey results. In the 2020 presidential election, Edison Research surveyed over 100,000 voters. The company also deployed employees to 200 early voting sites across the country. Before Election Day, approximately 30,000 people who voted by mail were interviewed by phone. In the 2024 election, a similar number of respondents is expected.” • On the phone interviews: If, as the Harris campaign suggested they do, wives lie to their husbands about how they vote, they’ll be unlikely to disclose that to Edison if they might be overheard. So the Harris campaign has managed to bias the exit polls to Trump, albeit to an unknown degree. Good job!

“Georgia’s elections are over. Opposition exit polls show 40% for the ruling party, while government polls report over 51%” [JAM News]. “According to an exit poll conducted by Gorbi for the pro-government TV channel Imedi, the results of the parliamentary elections are as follows: Georgian Dream — 56.1%…. According to an exit poll by Edison Research for the TV channel Formula, the vote distribution is as follows: Georgian Dream — 40.9%.” • Normally, I would think of Edison Research as rather like a dull and boring public utility. Here, however, we find them involved in what looks awfully like Rose Revolution 2.0, complete with heavy NGO involvement, the usual street protests, pronouncements of election theft by Ursula von der Leyen, and no doubt a heavy leavening of spooks. Of course, even if the permission structure created by “Trump is Hitler” does allow spook-adjacency to Edison Research here at home, thinking that would actually happen is tinfoil hat stuff, right? I certainly hope so!

“Nostradamus pollster reveals latest 2024 prediction – and how he’s never had ‘so much hate’ in an election” [Independent]. “Historian Allan Lichtman [of “Keys to the White House” fame] has insisted that he stands by his prediction about who will win the 2024 presidential race despite recent polls – and revealed that he has ‘never experienced’ so much ‘hate’ in an election cycle…. ‘I’ve been getting feedback that is vulgar, violent, threatening, and even beyond that, the safety and security of my family has been compromised.’”

“Why the race isn’t as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge” [Daily Mail]. “Americans living in Nevada and Arizona have had a front-row seat to the impact of mass illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration. In both of these states, registered Republican voters have cast more early ballots than registered Democrats — reversing a historic Democratic advantage. Of course, these early ballots do not reveal actual vote numbers, as they are not opened until Election Day. But this changing dynamic can’t be ignored. As of Sunday, Republicans held a 33,500 ballot lead or 5.2 percent of the total early vote. Last week, Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, described the result as ‘unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle’ and said there is ‘no good news’ in the figures for Democrats.” • Nixon’s “silent majority” gets a do-over?

“Donald Trump is in a strong poll position – does it matter?” [USA Today]. “In his third race for the presidency, Republican nominee Donald Trump has never been in as good of a poll position as he is now – but he’ll have to wait at least a week to find out whether it means anything. As of Monday, Trump leads Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by as close a margin as possible – 0.1% – in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls. He trailed in the same survey by 7.5% four years ago against Joe Biden and 4.6% in 2016, the year he won the presidency against Hillary Clinton. The way Trump and his allies see it, the closer the polls in the popular vote, the better his chances to win enough states to capture the Electoral College and the presidency – and he outperformed the polls in both of his previous races. Democrats say there is reason to doubt that will happen this time around. They said pollsters are compensating for what they call the ‘hidden Trump voters’ of the previous two elections, and, if anything, they are oversampling Republicans and inflating Trump’s numbers. Republican candidates underperformed the polls in the 2022 congressional elections, Democrats said. And Trump consistently underperformed polls in a string of Republican primaries earlier this year.” • And the polls are, after all, editorial products. So.

“Garbage.” The video at :40:

“Biden sets off election firestorm with ‘garbage’ comment” [Axios]. “President Biden handed ammo to gleeful Republicans Tuesday night when he seemed to refer to former President Trump’s supporters as “garbage.’” He didn’t “seem.” He did. More: “Biden’s comments are the latest example of why Kamala Harris’ team has been avoiding campaigning with him. Biden is both unpopular and undisciplined, Harris aides told Axios. Harris delivered her ‘closing argument’ speech Tuesday night in front of the White House but Biden did not appear alongside her despite being in Washington.” • Truly, Biden is the master of counter-programming (although I’m not clear on whether Biden delivered these remarks during Kamala’s speech).

“Trump calls for supporters to ‘forgive’ Biden in show of unity after president calls supporters ‘garbage’” [FOX]. “‘Wow. That’s terrible,’ Trump said, invoking Hillary Clinton’s infamous ‘deplorable’ remarks in the weeks before the 2016 election. ‘And then she said irredeemable. That didn’t work out.’ The Republican nominee called on his supporters to forgive him during a packed rally at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pennsylvania. ‘Garbage, I think, is worse,’ he said. ‘But he doesn’t know. You have to please forgive him.” • Cf. Luke 23:34.

“Joe Biden Walks Back Remarks About ‘Garbage’ At Madison Square Garden” [HuffPo]. The headline is deceptive. Biden was clearly tallking about Trump supporters (one of long line of similar Democrat comments, starting with Obama’s “bitter” people who “cling to guns and religion,” and moving on the Clinton’s “deplorables.” More: “Andrew Bates, a senior deputy press secretary at the White House, clarified [sic] that Biden was referring to the overarching rhetoric at the Manhattan rally as “garbage,” not the people there to support Trump. He released a transcript that included an apostrophe in the president’s remarks ― ‘his supporter’s demonization’ ― to note the president was criticizing Hinchcliffe’s words.” • Nonsense. Comedians aren’t “supporters.”

“Harris responds to Biden ‘garbage’ remark for first time” [FOX]. “Biden made his remark during a Zoom call on Tuesday with Voto Latino, one of the largest Latino voter and civic outreach organizations in the U.S. Harris, speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force Two, noted that Biden had “clarified his comments.’ ‘I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote ‘You heard my speech last night and continuously throughout my career. I believe that the work that I do is about representing all the people, whether they support me or not.’ Harris added that Biden had called her Tuesday night after the event, but she said they did not discuss his ‘garbage’ comment.” • Oh? Why?

From the Lincoln Project, another ad encouraging wives to lie to their husbands:

The more I think about this… Normally, I resist overheated conservative fulminations that Democrats are out to destroy the sanctity of marriage, etc. etc. After all, social relations change through history, fortunately, despite conservative efforts to “conserve” them. However, in this ad, “destroying the sancity of marriage” is, in fact, the object. The people who wrote the script and paid for the ad intend exactly that. What will be the next “noble lie”? I’m surprised the Trump campaign isn’t all over this, because to me it’s a genuinely extraordinary turn of events. Perhaps I’m naive. Readers?

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Makes Her Final Pitch for Voters to ‘Turn the Page’ on Donald Trump” [Time]. “In a forceful, 30-minute speech, Harris asked voters to elect her and ‘turn the page’ on Trump. ‘We know what Donald Trump has in mind: more chaos, more division, and policies that help those at the very top and hurt everyone else. I offer a different path,’ she said. Harris compared Trump to a ‘petty tyrant’ who is ‘unstable,’ ‘obsessed with revenge,’ and wants ‘unchecked power.’ She said he wants back in the Oval Office, ;not to focus on your problems but to focus on his.’ Trump has signaled support for military tribunals for political enemies, promised to purge the federal bureaucracy of workers who don’t agree with him, and said he’d use the military against opponents he calls ‘the enemy within.’ Trump would come into the Oval Office with an ‘enemies list,’ Harris said. She’ll show up with a ‘to do list.’” • Not that dealing with deplorables and traitors won’t be things to do, of course. The list is a wonderful data structure!

Kamala (D): “‘The suburbs — that’s the whole deal’: How the suburbs became Harris’ clearest path to victory” [Politico]. “Kamala Harris is counting on suburban voters to do what they’ve done since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016: reject him. It may be the single most important piece of her electoral math. While Donald Trump has made inroads with Black and Latino men, polls in the late stage of the election show the suburbs could still power her to victory. The latest Wall Street Journal poll found Harris leading among suburban voters by 7 percentage points, while a Reuters/Ipsos analysis showed the vice president winning suburban households by 6 points. If either of those numbers hold, they would likely be enough to offset Harris’ erosion with Black, Latino and young men…. Inside the Harris campaign, aides said they believe they will improve on President Joe Biden’s performance with suburban voters in 2020, driven by college-educated voters and women who are turned off by the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. That strategy is clear in the campaign’s schedule in the closing weeks of the campaign, as Harris hosts town halls with disaffected Republicans, like former Rep. Liz Cheney, and rallies focused on abortion rights.” • So abortion + genocide looks like a winning formula?

“Madison Square Garden. Just like Hitler!” That argument makes me crazy, and I’m not the only one: