By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Tune of the Day
I believed I might attempt some nightingales….
Widespread Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, Córdoba, Andalucía, Spain.
In Case You May Miss…
- 2024 Opinion-havers opine, two weeks out.
- Trump media blitz (Rogan; Carlson).
- Kamala and Biden’s decline (her view vs. the donor’s view).
- Boeing satellite tv for pc explodes; Ortberg seeks tradition change.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Much less tjhwo weeks to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win” [New York Times]. “Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain. Here are three reasons: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different… There simply do not seem to be enough voters — even in the battleground states — who turn out at Mr. Trump’s behest anymore when he’s simply preaching to his base. He has not learned from his electoral losses nor done the necessary work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves….. With her field operation moving like a tremendous machine, it seems likely there has never been a greater disparity in voter contact efforts…. [3] It’s just a feeling. My final reason is 100 percent emotional. We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong…. In two weeks, we not only have a chance to elect Kamala Harris as president, but a chance to bring finality to the sordid career of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a prolonged remission.” • “Remission,” eh?
“Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine” [Nate Silver, New York Times]. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’ So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.” On the polling: “Instead [of shy Trump voters], the likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias….. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There’s no guarantee any of this will work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification — about as many people now identify as Republicans.” But: “Here’s another counterintuitive finding: It’s surprisingly likely that the election won’t be a photo finish…. With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states…. Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them.” • I guess we’ll see!
* * * “The electorate is changing. Here’s what that means for Trump and Harris” [Ron Brownstein, CNN]. “The groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). The fact that both of those groups are increasing in the electorate, while Trump’s best cohort is shrinking, may give Harris a small swell in her sails. “The growing parts of the population are leaning Democrat, even in this time” when so many voters are discontented with conditions in the country, Frey said. The fact that women are likely to cast more ballots than men in all the swing states, he believes, will provide a small lift to Harris as well.” • Abortion + the war machine seems to be Harris’s view of a winning formula for college-educated White women… Commentary:
A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump’s base of non-college White voters.
This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her own in MI, PA & WI. pic.twitter.com/ww9pnp3DxY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2024
“Donald Trump Dropping ‘Core Group’ Important in 3 Battleground States” [Newsweek]. “Political analyst Harry Enten’s evaluation reveals Trump is main nationally amongst noncollege educated white voters by 27 factors, down from 31 factors in 2020 and 33 factors in 2016. ‘That may not appear to be so much, however provided that we’re seeing these double digit features amongst Black voters or amongst Hispanic voters in among the polls, the truth that we’re seeing this core group of supporters truly shifting away from him, not simply off of the 2016 baseline, however the 2020 baseline as effectively, I believe that’s a reasonably fascinating growth,’ Enten stated… Enten stated that the shift mattered as a result of noncollege educated white voters make up 40 % of the citizens nationally, however 51 % of the citizens in the important thing battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin…. ‘,’ Enten defined. Enten’s evaluation additionally revealed that Trump’s vote share amongst noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, together with his lead at the moment standing at 19 factors, in comparison with 22 factors in 2020 and 25 factors in 2016. ‘,’ Enten stated. ‘And when you have got a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, amongst his core group that makes up nearly all of voters, it could make up for large shifts amongst smaller teams within the citizens and for this reason Kamala Harris continues to be within the ball recreation proper now.’” • Hmm.
“2024 Election Might Hinge on Tiny Shifts within the Citizens” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. ” This apparently very shut presidential election displays a deeply divided citizens the place the potential modifications in both course all of us speak about continually are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very huge variations within the course of the nation will stream from tiny shifts in a single course or one other of a carefully divided citizens. It’s why nervousness ranges are so excessive proper now amongst these paying avid consideration to politics, despite the fact that the result might rely on “low-propensity voters” barely paying consideration in any respect.”
“Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Final Soundings” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “Asking individuals who they imagine will win the election, versus who they’ll vote for, may be an efficient instrument for making an attempt to determine who’s favored in an election. A sequence of 4 totally different polls asking Individuals who they imagine will win the election confirmed that extra anticipated Donald Trump to win through the summer time, however extra lately these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.” A Keynsian magnificence contest! Extra: “A rising physique of proof signifies that ‘citizen forecasting‘ (CF), because the latter technique has been known as, makes for extra correct predictions of the winner. Certainly, research of CF in the USA and the UK, in addition to work on different democracies (akin to Canada, France, or Germany) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions by way of predictive accuracy, yielding the next stage of statistical and substantive significance. Impressed by this spectacular observe report, we now have been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, through nationally consultant samples of American voters, as drawn by the Verasight survey workforce.” And: “This present citizen forecast factors to a Harris victory in November.” However: “Verasight polls performed June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, . N = 750 for all 4 polls.” • The final polling was nonetheless throughout Harris’s honeymoon interval, three weeks in the past. And that’s a very long time in politics.
* * * “Will lengthy COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers suppose it may” [USA Today]. “An growing older U.S. inhabitants and the rise of lengthy COVID imply voters with disabilities might have extra of an influence on the upcoming election than ever earlier than, a brand new Rutgers College report finds…. Between growing older, lengthy COVID and different components, one in six eligible voters within the U.S. now has a incapacity of some kind, the Rutgers researchers discovered. That’s double the expansion charge of voters with out disabilities, their report stated…. Traditionally, these voters have splintered into smaller teams, every lobbying for its particular must take care of developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or different points. However the numerous communities got here collectively through the pandemic round imperatives like entry to well being care and employment, Schur stated…. ‘General, there isn’t any actual partisan benefit. When there was a blue wave in 2018, folks with disabilities have been a part of the blue wave. There wasn’t actually a giant distinction, and I don’t anticipate a very huge distinction this yr,’ [Douglas] Kruse stated. ‘However it’s true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that well being care is extra necessary to folks with disabilities. And I believe that tends to favor the Democrats.’” That may rely on what their expertise with the well being care system truly is. And: “Yet another reality about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls throughout the nation this yr: There shall be extra girls (21.6 million) than males (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 males and 533,900 girls in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million — one in three eligible voters — after including those that reside with somebody with a incapacity. Thought of that manner, the citizens with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic/Latino and Black voting demographics within the U.S., Kruse and Schur famous.”
* * * Kamala (D): “The Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris” [Politico]. “The night’s moderator, Wisconsin conservative discuss present host turned anti-Trump author Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equal of a fastball down the center of the plate. Perched beneath a ‘Nation Over Occasion signal,’ Sykes requested Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear however are uneasy now about casting a poll for a Democrat. The vp started by citing ‘the lived expertise’ of most Individuals — sounding extra like a graduate scholar from down the highway in Madison than most Individuals — of getting a lot in widespread. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how Individuals ‘love our nation’ earlier than praising democracy, the rule of legislation and the Structure. Then, making slightly progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, the place lawmakers from each events put apart partisanship to concentrate on defending the ‘safety and well-being’ of all Individuals. That, Harris concluded, ‘is at stake.’ That was it. Harris stated nothing particular about how she’d govern, talked about no looming challenge on which she’d work with Republicans and provided no reassurances about main the nation from the political heart. And, after all, there was no critique of her personal celebration and even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal might be tough for a longtime conservative. There wasn’t even a reference to her earlier commitments to incorporate a Republican within the Cupboard or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening query from a pre-selected moderator who’s supporting her marketing campaign!” • The whole lot about that is unhealthy: the candidate, the staffwork, and the online impact on these invested in her, like Sykes, who would possibly effectively really feel they’d been performed.
Kamala (D): What Kamala stated:
Hallie Jackson requested Harris yesterday: “Are you able to say that you simply have been trustworthy with the American folks about what you noticed in these moments with President Biden, as you have been with him time and again repeatedly in that point?”
Harris: “After all. Joe Biden is an especially achieved,… pic.twitter.com/HMykeLm5MD
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024
What others noticed:
At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Invoice Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: “He by no means accomplished a sentence….He advised the identical story thrice in precisely the identical manner and it meandered a lot…Frankly, my impression was there have been occasions…it was as if we didn’t exist.… pic.twitter.com/Vav7clSMGQ
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024
I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say “She has to say that,” nevertheless it sticks in my craw. And Biden can be, we might neglect, nonetheless President. Why is that OK?
Kamala (D): “Detroit Muslim chief ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab Individuals” [Detroit Metro Times]. “Ahmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invite to the occasion and was seated within the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a marketing campaign organizer ordered him to depart. ‘She took me to the door, and he or she closed it, and I discovered two cops ready there, and he or she stated, ‘You must go away proper now,” Ghanim tells Metro Occasions. ‘I requested why she was kicking me out. She wouldn’t reply. I used to be very calmly asking why I used to be being kicked out.’ He continues, ‘I used to be simply carrying a go well with and a white shirt. I stated, ‘OK,’ and I left. The police officer stated, ‘You both go away now or I’ll put you behind my automobile.’” Good. The Harris marketing campaign statementL “The marketing campaign was swiftly knowledgeable by Emgage Motion [Ghanim’s organizaiton] of yesterday’s incident and appeared into it,’ the assertion reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. ‘Our marketing campaign regrets this motion and its influence on Dr. Ghanim and the neighborhood, and he’s welcome at future occasions. We worth our relationship with the Muslim American neighborhood and are dedicated to making sure all neighborhood and political areas are welcoming and respectful to each American.’” • Horrible staffwork, each in Ghanim’s ejection and the assertion (by which the phrase “apologize” doesn’t seem). Regardless of the statements blah blah blah, it seems to be to me just like the Harris marketing campaign already had the cops wired up, and had an inventory (with photographs) of attendees to bar.
Kamala (D): “What Kamala Harris Must Do to Win Over Extra Black Males” [New York Magazine]. “Democrats have recognized since Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires most turnout within the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The issue is that Dems have assumed they might generate Obama-era ranges of pleasure for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden — and now Kamala Harris — with out a substantial, sustained political funding up entrance.” And: “‘You’re going to select on Black males and blame us for the whole lot. What did you ship to Black males prior to now 4 years?’ the activist and commentator Van Jones stated at a latest college dialogue in California. ‘We needed the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn’t get it. We needed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn’t get it. And we needed the EQUAL Act, the subsequent step in legal justice reform, and didn’t get that. Three issues we needed, and we obtained zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.’ Against this, Jones famous, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early launch from federal jail to greater than 30,000 folks — a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats hardly ever talk about.” • Hmm.
Kamala (D):
NEWS
Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to ship her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the Nationwide Mall.
Sources inform the Washington Publish that Harris’ speech will speak about January 6 however will focus extra broadly on her ideas on Trump’s risk to democracy.… pic.twitter.com/FVM52Jl01q
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 23, 2024
Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn’t try this. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.
Kamala (D): Biden on the path:
Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: “we gotta lock him up” after which, showing to comprehend how his feedback could be taken, provides: “politically, lock him up.” pic.twitter.com/cw3X8RzKn2
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 22, 2024
Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.
* * * Right here we go! 🇺🇸 @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/bgja6JPqsQ
— Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) October 22, 2024
JRE = Joe Rogan Expertise.
Trump (R): Media blitz (2):
Our reside tour isn’t over but. For the grand finale, we’ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October thirty first with particular visitor President Donald J. Trump. All income shall be donated to hurricane aid efforts. We hope to see you there.
Get tickets to our greatest present but at… pic.twitter.com/00756VvITT
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 23, 2024
* * * Trump (R) (Willis/McAfee): “Particular prosecutor in Georgia’s case in opposition to Trump met with Biden officers” [Washington Times]. “Nathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case in opposition to Donald Trump whereas having an affair with District Lawyer Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White Home officers a number of occasions however claimed he couldn’t bear in mind the main points…. Ms. Willis employed Mr. Wade despite the fact that he was a divorce lawyer with little expertise prosecuting legal instances. In 2022, he was paid almost $700,000 to supervise the case in opposition to the previous president, in line with a co-defendant in search of to have the fees dismissed….. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration’s involvement within the case through the interview that was performed on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted by which he billed for a ‘Conf. with White Home counsel’ in Athens, Georgia, on Might 23, 2022. When requested about every of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 occasions that he couldn’t bear in mind particulars.” • What cause may the White Home presumably have for getting concerned in a state prosectution? Appears odd.
* * * “Elon Musk ‘Jokes’ in a Church About Somebody Killing Kamala Harris” [Rolling Stone]. “Elon Musk retains making an attempt to stay his ‘joke’ about anyone assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, once more, that ‘nobody’s even bothering to attempt to kill Kamala’ … Performing as a Donald Trump surrogate — along with the $75 million moneyman behind a number one Trump Tremendous PAC — Musk spoke Saturday night time on the Life Middle megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the profession of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.” • I wouldn’t be stunned if Musk’s involvement, in any respect ranges, didn’t turn into a internet unfavourable. He’s a free cannon, and the Trump marketing campaign doesn’t want two. (I’d like so much much less Musk, and much more Kennedy. I wouldn’t name Kennedy a free cannon, a lot as his personal cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unlucky, in my opinion).
* * * AZ: Spectacular:
Arizona Dem operating in opposition to Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to go to all 22 of the state’s federally acknowledged tribes. However there was no highway main into the Havasupai village of 639 folks. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to stroll there.
— Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) October 19, 2024
Maybe a stunt, however nonetheless spectacular.
GA: “In battleground Georgia, poor folks see no cause to vote. That call may sway election” [Associated Press (KLG)]. “Positioned about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the sort of place the place Vice President Kamala Harris would want to run up her margin with a purpose to defeat Donald Trump on this yr’s election, a technique that helped Biden win the state 4 years in the past as he promised to elevate up Black Individuals. It gained’t be simple: Bibb County by no means recovered all the roles misplaced through the pandemic, and Labor Division knowledge present it had extra jobs in 2019 beneath Trump than it does now. Trump, the previous president, sees himself as having a possibility with Black voters, notably males. However he and Harris have one factor in widespread: Every may have a tough time persuading folks to prove who sometimes sit out elections. Greater than 47,000 folks in Bibb County have been eligible to vote in 2020 and didn’t, a determine roughly 4 occasions Biden’s margin of victory throughout the whole state.” However: “However the extra nonurban components of Georgia are solely a part of the electoral puzzle. It’s a dramatically totally different story in Atlanta and its vote-rich suburbs the place enthusiasm runs excessive for each Harris and Trump, though typically divided by race.” Nonetheless: “Nonvoters have primary, pressing wants the campaigns don’t deal with.”
NV: “The early voting weblog, 2024” [John Ralston (ick), Nevada Independent]. “Rurals matter. Particularly when they’re turning out 3.5 factors above their registration and producing landslide poll wins (58-20) over the Ds….. Dems are solely profitable the city Nevada poll race by 1 % – 38-37. Repubs have an almost 3 % turnout benefit statewide.” • Fascinating, however early days but.
NV: “As Harris Courts Solar Belt, Housing Prices Stand in Her Approach” [New York Times]. “In a state that depends on hourly wage staff in tourism and repair jobs, many can not discover an reasonably priced place to reside… Many working-class voters say a promise has been damaged, and they’re in search of somebody responsible… Many once-reliable Democrats say the difficulty has eroded their belief in politicians. Within the state’s Democratic hub, which means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. ‘After we obtained the brand new president, I didn’t hear nothing, I didn’t see any modifications,’ Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for many years, stated of the Biden administration. This yr, she doesn’t plan to vote in any respect.” • Harmless bystander: “Wasn’t Lina Khan engaged on price-gouging landlords?” Harris Marketing campaign: “Who?”
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Early-voting knowledge reveals Republican reversal seems to be paying off” [WaPo] “Democrats have embraced early voting for years, partially as a result of it leaves much less to probability on Election Day, when busy schedules, unhealthy climate or sickness can preserve voters from making it to the polls. Often called “banking” votes, early voting additionally permits campaigns to be extra environment friendly with assets as Election Day attracts close to by focusing consideration on a smaller and smaller group of voters who haven’t but forged ballots.” • One other manner of claiming that is that early voting skews towards partisans who don’t really want to review what the candidates are saying. Why we’re permitting that inhabitants, and the comfort of celebration operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open query.
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on plane: A scoping evaluation” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “This evaluation summarises reported contact-tracing knowledge and evaluates the secondary assault charges (SAR) and components related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in plane, to offer perception for future determination making within the context of future respiratory pandemics…. Our outcomes are in step with sporadic clusters occurring onboard plane. Shut proximity to COVID-19 instances inside the plane was related to the next [secondary attack rates (SAR)].” • Sitting nearer to the aisle and shifting concerning the cabin can be related to better threat. As well as, transmission may also rely on the air flow patterns in any given plane.
An infection: Covid
“Incident COVID-19 infections earlier than Omicron within the US” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “[W]e retrospectively estimate day by day incident infections for every U.S. state previous to Omicron. To this finish, reported COVID-19 instances are deconvolved to their date of an infection onset utilizing delay distributions estimated from the CDC line listing. Then, a novel serology-driven mannequin is used to scale these deconvolved instances to account for the unreported infections. The ensuing infections incorporate variant-specific incubation durations, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly exhibit that the reported instances fail to mirror the total extent of illness burden in all states. Most notably, , with an estimated reporting charge as little as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and eight.4% in Nevada. Furthermore, . Subsequently, whereas reported instances provide a handy proxy of illness burden, they fail to seize the total extent of infections, and may severely underestimate the true illness burden.” Here’s a abstract of the strategy: “First, we estimate the delays from optimistic specimen to report date and use them to push again the reported instances to their pattern assortment dates. Subsequent, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to pattern assortment, mix this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push again the instances to an infection onset. The ensuing case estimates are aggregated throughout variant classes and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey knowledge and a mannequin for antigenic immunity.” That is above my paygrade. Maybe an epidemiologist within the readership can remark.
Elite Maleficence
Nonetheless killing folks:
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG https://t.co/uP4sCT0VCy
— Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) October 22, 2024
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
Wastewater | |
This week[1] CDC October 14 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
|
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Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 12 |
|
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Hospitalization | |
★ New York[5] New York State, data October 22: | National [6] CDC September 28: |
|
|
Positivity | |
National[7] Walgreens October 21: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 19: |
|
|
Travelers Data | |
Positivity[9] CDC September 30: | Variants[10] CDC September 30: |
|
|
Deaths | |
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC October 12: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC October 12: |
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) A pause.
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s bad year just keeps getting worse: One of its satellites has exploded in orbit, with debris becoming a potential threat to other satellites” [Fortune]. “A Boeing-made communications satellite has exploded, with debris floating that could potentially be a threat to other satellites at some point. Intelsat, the owner of the satellite, is reporting “the total loss” of the device in an update on its Website. The company is working with Boeing and government agencies to determine the cause of the mishap…. The U.S. Space Force says it is tracking 20 pieces of debris from the destroyed satellite and there was no immediate threat to other orbiting space equipment. Other observers, though, have seen higher amounts of debris. ExoAnalytic Solutions told SpaceNews it was tracking 57 pieces of debris and was warning operators of spacecraft that could be at risk of collision. And Russia’s space agency said it was tracking more than 80 fragments.” • Oopsie.
Manufacturing: “Boeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss as striking workers vote whether to accept contract offer” [Associated Press]. ” Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion before turning its attention to whether striking factory workers would accept a contract offer Wednesday and end a walkout that has crippled the company’s airplane production for nearly six weeks…. Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday’s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer’s history.The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will burn cash through 2025, but at a slower pace.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s New C.E.O. Calls for ‘Culture Change’ as Strike Vote Looms” [New York Times]. “In a message to employees, Mr. Ortberg shared a speech that he planned to deliver to investor analysts on a call later in the day to discuss Boeing’s quarterly financial results. In it, he offered a diagnosis: The company had lost too much trust, gained too much debt and made too many mistakes. To put Boeing back on the right path would require ‘fundamental culture change,’ stabilizing the business and improving execution. ‘Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,’ he said. ‘We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what’s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.’” • Fine. Restore defined-benefit pensions (and put a union member on the Board, as I keep screaming). Here are Ortberg’s complete remarks.
Manufacturing: “Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit” [Space News]. “An Intelsat spokesperson said the satellite was not insured at the time of the issue.” • Surely not wise, with a Boeing product?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 73 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 22 at 2:37:54 PM ET.
Gallery
One of my favorite flowers:
Monet, Irises pic.twitter.com/ElVphj6eDM
— Impressions (@impression_ists) October 20, 2024
Class Warfare
News of the Wired
For our numismatists:
Distribution of Roman Coins Found. pic.twitter.com/XC9X2E5jDR
— Illegitimate Scholar🧭 (@ill_Scholar) October 7, 2024
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are nice! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SC:
SC writes:
For greater than a decade, I’ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka “Mexican Sunflower.” I first encountered it again within the ’00s or early ’10s once I learn that it was used as inexperienced manure in components of Africa, planted alongside the perimeters of fields and harvested to be used as Nitrogen wealthy soil modification. At first, I believed that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen however I later discovered that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It’s a cheery, enticing plant, kind of a large puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Beginning within the mid-to-late ’10s, I’ve been yearly offering a bunch of those to an area social companies company that vegetation them exterior its assembly rooms. The vegetation appeal to hummingbirds, which give a morale increase to workers and shoppers. At, I believe, clientele initiative, the company subsequently began a horticulture sub-agenda in one in all its packages, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless folks, and that has branched out into veggie, ornamental and herb gardening on the company website.
Just a few years in the past, a sibling planted two of those (of species T. Rotundifolia, that apparently grows to six′ peak) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her home, 8′ at the very least, and have been so leafy and dense that you simply couldn’t see by them. The vegetation had lots of of blossoms and many hiding locations, a sort of hummingbird heaven. Such a big plant from a small seed.
This picture is of an instance of T. speciosa (in my expertise, much less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that apparently reaches 4-5′ peak. A good friend who commonly accepts vegetation from my “yard nursery” handed it additional on. It was began from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9′. I’m wondering what the neighbors make of it.
Wow. I may actually file this beneath “Search for the helpers,” too!
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In case you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on find out how to ship a test. Thanks!